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First world may have reached Peak energy for NOW . I predict after 2025, once Self driving ELECTRIC Cars/trucks are Norm and Industrial Robots make great stri

First world may have reached Peak energy for NOW . I predict after 2025, once Self driving ELECTRIC Cars/trucks are Norm and Industrial Robots make great strides with the New deep learning AI, resulting in general purpose Industrial Robots to do jobs in Construction & Agriculture etc.. Energy consumption going to increase at a RAPID rate. On Kardashev Scale of Type I,II,III Civilizations, It is estimated "we Planet Earth" will reach Type I status in 100–200 years. The GOOD News is from NOW On, all the New Energy production is from Renewables (mostly Solar ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement, based on the amount of energy a civilization is able to utilize.

toomuchtodo 10y ago
I only see energy use going up if we discover the ability to perform molecular assembly. If that occurs, yeah, energy use would skyrocket, but it would all hopefully be clean energy at that point. Even if you were to replace everyone in manufacturing, construction, etc with robotics, and replace all ICE vehicles with electric vehicles, you wouldn't see an enormous increase in energy use. The US DOE showed several years ago that almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. I stand by my previous statement that developed country energy consumption has peaked.
- LrnByTeach 10y ago
  >almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. hmm... I am little surprised with that DOE math. Avarage US Houldhold use 900 KWh per month as per link below. Electric car takes a total of 425 KWh to re-charge per month ( based on 1000 miles driven per month, see my own Nissan LEAF calc. below) So by 2025-30 when USA Electric vehicles are 25% (of Total vehicles), USA grid needs 12.5% increase in base load. When 80% are EV, then US need 40% increase in base load. ---- How much electricity does an American home use? https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 In 2014, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,932 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 911 kWh per month. ---- Here is my household Electricity consumption monthly breakdown in Kwh (from my Utility PG&E monthly bill) - I drive Nissan LEAF 100% Electric car about 1000 miles per month ( typical US avg.) Nissan LEAF re-charge* : 425 Kwh ( monthly total ) other household electrify: 400 Kwh ( I am low on household Kwh use, that is why I took US Avg 900 Kwh in above Calc.) * The fact that I re-charge Nissan LEAF only After 11 PM to get Off Peak rate of 11 cents Kwh, my Utility Bill show "Off Peak Kwh used in a month" , that is how I know exact KWh used for my Nissan LEAF re-charging.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Don't forget. Aging population. Seniors don't drive as much as working age citizens. And the number of baby boomers retiring is the largest cohort in history to move into that age range.
    - LrnByTeach 10y ago
      U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/ http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-proj... If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.
      - toomuchtodo 10y ago
        Your study is almost 10 years old. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas-emigration-problem/309410/ http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas... Combined with immigration greatly reduced, and the US fertility rate below replacement rate (1.88 births/woman), we're on a shallow population decline, not a rise.
        rgbrenner 10y ago
        Your link doesn't back up your conclusion. US census for 2014 says we'll hit 400m by 2050: https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/summarytables.html https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/... Consisting of an increase of almost 50m native born; and 30m foreign born (between now and 2050).
        LrnByTeach 10y ago
        @rgbrenner post below with US census data confirms US Population rise till 2050. In my above post my calculation of required increase on US electric grid base load is based on 'one CAR' per household which I just realized as wrong calculation. Based on the info. below US avg. Household size is 2.6 , then number of CARS per household is at least 2. so when 25% of cars are Electric Cars, you need 25% increase in utility Electric base load, and for 80% EV cars you need 80% increase. That is huge!!!!!!!!!!!! @toomuchtodo , anyway It is good discussion. I am glad I digged all this info in order to reply. Now it is crystal clear in head what are the US electric grid increasing load needs for the next 20 years. Hope our Policy makers and Politicians do this simple MATH and prepare with more SOLAR future accordingly .. https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=total%20number%20of%20households%20in%20usa https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&e... # of Households: 133,957,180 # of people in a household: 2.6

toomuchtodo 10y ago

I only see energy use going up if we discover the ability to perform molecular assembly. If that occurs, yeah, energy use would skyrocket, but it would all hopefully be clean energy at that point. Even if you were to replace everyone in manufacturing, construction, etc with robotics, and replace all ICE vehicles with electric vehicles, you wouldn't see an enormous increase in energy use. The US DOE showed several years ago that almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. I stand by my previous statement that developed country energy consumption has peaked.

LrnByTeach 10y ago
>almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. hmm... I am little surprised with that DOE math. Avarage US Houldhold use 900 KWh per month as per link below. Electric car takes a total of 425 KWh to re-charge per month ( based on 1000 miles driven per month, see my own Nissan LEAF calc. below) So by 2025-30 when USA Electric vehicles are 25% (of Total vehicles), USA grid needs 12.5% increase in base load. When 80% are EV, then US need 40% increase in base load. ---- How much electricity does an American home use? https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 In 2014, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,932 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 911 kWh per month. ---- Here is my household Electricity consumption monthly breakdown in Kwh (from my Utility PG&E monthly bill) - I drive Nissan LEAF 100% Electric car about 1000 miles per month ( typical US avg.) Nissan LEAF re-charge* : 425 Kwh ( monthly total ) other household electrify: 400 Kwh ( I am low on household Kwh use, that is why I took US Avg 900 Kwh in above Calc.) * The fact that I re-charge Nissan LEAF only After 11 PM to get Off Peak rate of 11 cents Kwh, my Utility Bill show "Off Peak Kwh used in a month" , that is how I know exact KWh used for my Nissan LEAF re-charging.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  Don't forget. Aging population. Seniors don't drive as much as working age citizens. And the number of baby boomers retiring is the largest cohort in history to move into that age range.
  - LrnByTeach 10y ago
    U.S. Population Projections: 2005-2050 http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-projections-2005-2050/ http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2008/02/11/us-population-proj... If current trends continue, the population of the United States will rise to 438 million in 2050, from 296 million in 2005, and 82% of the increase will be due to immigrants arriving from 2005 to 2050 and their U.S.-born descendants, according to new projections developed by the Pew Research Center.
    - toomuchtodo 10y ago
      Your study is almost 10 years old. http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas-emigration-problem/309410/ http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2013/07/americas... Combined with immigration greatly reduced, and the US fertility rate below replacement rate (1.88 births/woman), we're on a shallow population decline, not a rise.
      - rgbrenner 10y ago
        Your link doesn't back up your conclusion. US census for 2014 says we'll hit 400m by 2050: https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/2014/summarytables.html https://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/national/... Consisting of an increase of almost 50m native born; and 30m foreign born (between now and 2050).
      - LrnByTeach 10y ago
        @rgbrenner post below with US census data confirms US Population rise till 2050. In my above post my calculation of required increase on US electric grid base load is based on 'one CAR' per household which I just realized as wrong calculation. Based on the info. below US avg. Household size is 2.6 , then number of CARS per household is at least 2. so when 25% of cars are Electric Cars, you need 25% increase in utility Electric base load, and for 80% EV cars you need 80% increase. That is huge!!!!!!!!!!!! @toomuchtodo , anyway It is good discussion. I am glad I digged all this info in order to reply. Now it is crystal clear in head what are the US electric grid increasing load needs for the next 20 years. Hope our Policy makers and Politicians do this simple MATH and prepare with more SOLAR future accordingly .. https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=total%20number%20of%20households%20in%20usa https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&e... # of Households: 133,957,180 # of people in a household: 2.6