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> its result can be accurately factored into a probabilistic model of a patient's overall health. But my health with respect to an illness is not probabilistic
by gvb 10y ago
> its result can be accurately factored into a probabilistic model of a patient's overall health.
But my health with respect to an illness is not probabilistic[1]. I either have the illness or don't have the illness. Probabilities are not useful when the sample size is one (me).
[1] Pedantic: it is probabilistic, but the probability is either 0% or 100% because the confidence interval sucks.
- TeMPOraL 10y agoIt's probabilistic because you don't know whether or not you have an illness. It's like tossing a coin - it's 100% on one side and 0% on the other, but you don't know which side it is on until you check - that's why we say a fair coin has a 50% probability of landing on either side when tossed. Now the test you use with that (mathematical) coin is 100% accurate. Tests in medicine are not. They're more like "oh I see you sort of seem to have X; X has been known to occur a bit more in people suffering from Y than in those not suffering from Y". Hence the uncertainty.