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demand for electricity remained relatively flat over the previous decade. To me, that might be the best news in the whole press release.

toomuchtodo 10y ago
Aging population, efficiency, etc. Peak energy (consumption) has been reached in the first world.
- danieltillett 10y ago
  I think you left out de-industrialisation as one of the major causes.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Thanks for adding that, although I think textiles are the majority of energy intensive manufacturing (which, of course, has moved overseas). http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13431 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13431
- ZoeZoeBee 10y ago
  Society has yet to grasp the ramifications of stagnant to declining populations in almost all of the first world and China. Capitalism and the fractional reserve banking systems dominating the world depend upon constant expansion, long story short we face a demographic nightmare generations in the making. The citizens are best represented as Wiley Coyote who's run off the edge of the cliff but hasn't looked down.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    Agreed! Although, I'd say we as a society have the opportunity to live relatively scarcity-free in the not too distance future (enough food, energy, clothing, shelter for everyone); we must decide if we'll embrace the opportunity.
    - ZoeZoeBee 10y ago
      Absolutely, the not too distant future is going to be interesting one way or the other, it is too late to change the inevitability of demographics and the subsequent bubble they've produced. Of course the truth will get you down votes on hacker news
    - dragonwriter 10y ago
      > Although, I'd say we as a society have the opportunity to live relatively scarcity-free in the not too distance future (enough food, energy, clothing, shelter for everyone) For centuries its been true that every generation has had the resources to live "relatively scarcity-free" in terms of having the resources to provide enough food, energy, clothing, and shelter for everyone, based on the standards of a time in the not too distant (from the point under consideration) past. The problem has always been: (1) Resource distribution, (2) Standards moving forward over time. I don't see much prospect of that changing in the not too distant future.
- LrnByTeach 10y ago
  First world may have reached Peak energy for NOW . I predict after 2025, once Self driving ELECTRIC Cars/trucks are Norm and Industrial Robots make great strides with the New deep learning AI, resulting in general purpose Industrial Robots to do jobs in Construction & Agriculture etc.. Energy consumption going to increase at a RAPID rate. On Kardashev Scale of Type I,II,III Civilizations, It is estimated "we Planet Earth" will reach Type I status in 100–200 years. The GOOD News is from NOW On, all the New Energy production is from Renewables (mostly Solar ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement, based on the amount of energy a civilization is able to utilize.
  - toomuchtodo 10y ago
    I only see energy use going up if we discover the ability to perform molecular assembly. If that occurs, yeah, energy use would skyrocket, but it would all hopefully be clean energy at that point. Even if you were to replace everyone in manufacturing, construction, etc with robotics, and replace all ICE vehicles with electric vehicles, you wouldn't see an enormous increase in energy use. The US DOE showed several years ago that almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. I stand by my previous statement that developed country energy consumption has peaked.
    - LrnByTeach 10y ago
      >almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. hmm... I am little surprised with that DOE math. Avarage US Houldhold use 900 KWh per month as per link below. Electric car takes a total of 425 KWh to re-charge per month ( based on 1000 miles driven per month, see my own Nissan LEAF calc. below) So by 2025-30 when USA Electric vehicles are 25% (of Total vehicles), USA grid needs 12.5% increase in base load. When 80% are EV, then US need 40% increase in base load. ---- How much electricity does an American home use? https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 In 2014, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,932 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 911 kWh per month. ---- Here is my household Electricity consumption monthly breakdown in Kwh (from my Utility PG&E monthly bill) - I drive Nissan LEAF 100% Electric car about 1000 miles per month ( typical US avg.) Nissan LEAF re-charge* : 425 Kwh ( monthly total ) other household electrify: 400 Kwh ( I am low on household Kwh use, that is why I took US Avg 900 Kwh in above Calc.) * The fact that I re-charge Nissan LEAF only After 11 PM to get Off Peak rate of 11 cents Kwh, my Utility Bill show "Off Peak Kwh used in a month" , that is how I know exact KWh used for my Nissan LEAF re-charging.

toomuchtodo 10y ago

Aging population, efficiency, etc. Peak energy (consumption) has been reached in the first world.

danieltillett 10y ago
I think you left out de-industrialisation as one of the major causes.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  Thanks for adding that, although I think textiles are the majority of energy intensive manufacturing (which, of course, has moved overseas). http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13431 http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13431
ZoeZoeBee 10y ago
Society has yet to grasp the ramifications of stagnant to declining populations in almost all of the first world and China. Capitalism and the fractional reserve banking systems dominating the world depend upon constant expansion, long story short we face a demographic nightmare generations in the making. The citizens are best represented as Wiley Coyote who's run off the edge of the cliff but hasn't looked down.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  Agreed! Although, I'd say we as a society have the opportunity to live relatively scarcity-free in the not too distance future (enough food, energy, clothing, shelter for everyone); we must decide if we'll embrace the opportunity.
  - ZoeZoeBee 10y ago
    Absolutely, the not too distant future is going to be interesting one way or the other, it is too late to change the inevitability of demographics and the subsequent bubble they've produced. Of course the truth will get you down votes on hacker news
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    > Although, I'd say we as a society have the opportunity to live relatively scarcity-free in the not too distance future (enough food, energy, clothing, shelter for everyone) For centuries its been true that every generation has had the resources to live "relatively scarcity-free" in terms of having the resources to provide enough food, energy, clothing, and shelter for everyone, based on the standards of a time in the not too distant (from the point under consideration) past. The problem has always been: (1) Resource distribution, (2) Standards moving forward over time. I don't see much prospect of that changing in the not too distant future.
LrnByTeach 10y ago
First world may have reached Peak energy for NOW . I predict after 2025, once Self driving ELECTRIC Cars/trucks are Norm and Industrial Robots make great strides with the New deep learning AI, resulting in general purpose Industrial Robots to do jobs in Construction & Agriculture etc.. Energy consumption going to increase at a RAPID rate. On Kardashev Scale of Type I,II,III Civilizations, It is estimated "we Planet Earth" will reach Type I status in 100–200 years. The GOOD News is from NOW On, all the New Energy production is from Renewables (mostly Solar ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale The Kardashev scale is a method of measuring a civilization's level of technological advancement, based on the amount of energy a civilization is able to utilize.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago
  I only see energy use going up if we discover the ability to perform molecular assembly. If that occurs, yeah, energy use would skyrocket, but it would all hopefully be clean energy at that point. Even if you were to replace everyone in manufacturing, construction, etc with robotics, and replace all ICE vehicles with electric vehicles, you wouldn't see an enormous increase in energy use. The US DOE showed several years ago that almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. I stand by my previous statement that developed country energy consumption has peaked.
  - LrnByTeach 10y ago
    >almost 80% of vehicles could move over to the electric grid with existing base load generation. hmm... I am little surprised with that DOE math. Avarage US Houldhold use 900 KWh per month as per link below. Electric car takes a total of 425 KWh to re-charge per month ( based on 1000 miles driven per month, see my own Nissan LEAF calc. below) So by 2025-30 when USA Electric vehicles are 25% (of Total vehicles), USA grid needs 12.5% increase in base load. When 80% are EV, then US need 40% increase in base load. ---- How much electricity does an American home use? https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=97&t=3 In 2014, the average annual electricity consumption for a U.S. residential utility customer was 10,932 kilowatthours (kWh), an average of 911 kWh per month. ---- Here is my household Electricity consumption monthly breakdown in Kwh (from my Utility PG&E monthly bill) - I drive Nissan LEAF 100% Electric car about 1000 miles per month ( typical US avg.) Nissan LEAF re-charge* : 425 Kwh ( monthly total ) other household electrify: 400 Kwh ( I am low on household Kwh use, that is why I took US Avg 900 Kwh in above Calc.) * The fact that I re-charge Nissan LEAF only After 11 PM to get Off Peak rate of 11 cents Kwh, my Utility Bill show "Off Peak Kwh used in a month" , that is how I know exact KWh used for my Nissan LEAF re-charging.