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The other issue with intercepting an ICBM is that the ballistics are much more difficult. You have to factor in the curvature of the earth, atmospheric conditio

by hguant 10y ago

The other issue with intercepting an ICBM is that the ballistics are much more difficult. You have to factor in the curvature of the earth, atmospheric conditions (is there a storm front between the interceptor pad and the missile?), and the changing nature of the projectile (is it a MIRV? some missiles can jink now, how do you handle that?).

Declanomous 10y ago
One of my friends is a rocket scientist (aerospace engineer). I asked him about kill vehicles once, and he said that intercepting Russian ICBMs is a losing battle even if you can identify the ICBM and intercept it reliably. Russian ICBMs have inflatable decoy payloads in them that are balloons for all intents and purposes. Since ICBMs deploy their payload while in space, where there is no atmosphere, the decoy balloons behave just like the actual nuclear warheads, despite the huge difference in mass. Once they hit the atmosphere the decoy payloads slow down quickly, however you should target the ICBM and its payload much earlier than this if you want to reliably defeat it. The decoys are much less expensive than the intercept vehicles, and the balloon decoys are light, so Russia can afford to put a whole mess of them in each ICBM. *edited for clarity.
- tropo 10y ago
  It's still a fight worth fighting. Multi-layer defense works. Yes, yes, it sucks when a city gets nuked, but things go way worse if you just give up on the problem and thus allow 1000 cities to get nuked. Think of it like computer network defense. You don't just give up because there is a chance of failure. You start with treaties, export control, diplomacy, and a threat to respond in kind. Next it's sabotage, both physical and cyber. Next it's launch-phase attack... and if they move their launch sites to a less-desirable location to avoid your attack, it's still a partial win. Next it's an attack right before engine cut-out, possibly from orbit. Next it's an attack on the warheads in space; those balloons sure are vulnerable to lasers. Next it's an attack right after reentry. Next is building codes, bomb shelters, and emergency services. Every layer has value, even if imperfect. It's negligent to leave out even one layer.
- trhway 10y ago
  New Russian (and Chinese by extend, the tech was sold about 10 years ago) warheads are also maneuverable on re-entry.

by hguant 10y ago

Declanomous 10y ago

One of my friends is a rocket scientist (aerospace engineer). I asked him about kill vehicles once, and he said that intercepting Russian ICBMs is a losing battle even if you can identify the ICBM and intercept it reliably. Russian ICBMs have inflatable decoy payloads in them that are balloons for all intents and purposes. Since ICBMs deploy their payload while in space, where there is no atmosphere, the decoy balloons behave just like the actual nuclear warheads, despite the huge difference in mass. Once they hit the atmosphere the decoy payloads slow down quickly, however you should target the ICBM and its payload much earlier than this if you want to reliably defeat it. The decoys are much less expensive than the intercept vehicles, and the balloon decoys are light, so Russia can afford to put a whole mess of them in each ICBM. *edited for clarity.

tropo 10y ago
It's still a fight worth fighting. Multi-layer defense works. Yes, yes, it sucks when a city gets nuked, but things go way worse if you just give up on the problem and thus allow 1000 cities to get nuked. Think of it like computer network defense. You don't just give up because there is a chance of failure. You start with treaties, export control, diplomacy, and a threat to respond in kind. Next it's sabotage, both physical and cyber. Next it's launch-phase attack... and if they move their launch sites to a less-desirable location to avoid your attack, it's still a partial win. Next it's an attack right before engine cut-out, possibly from orbit. Next it's an attack on the warheads in space; those balloons sure are vulnerable to lasers. Next it's an attack right after reentry. Next is building codes, bomb shelters, and emergency services. Every layer has value, even if imperfect. It's negligent to leave out even one layer.
trhway 10y ago
New Russian (and Chinese by extend, the tech was sold about 10 years ago) warheads are also maneuverable on re-entry.