That is true in a growing market where overall smartphone sales are growing when overall growth slows to single digit percentages Apple will start loosing users

That is true in a growing market where overall smartphone sales are growing when overall growth slows to single digit percentages Apple will start loosing users to cheaper Android phones that give 90-95% utility for 40-50% of the price. Apple had so far been sheltered by this in the US because of phone contract system where $1000 iPhone and $600 Android phone were being sold at $150-200 with contract. Now that phone prices have been separated from line contracts more people will either upgrade later or go for cheaper phones and that has already started showing in current market. Another thing that will hurt Apple in the long run is that smartphones have reached a point where upgrading every 2 years won't get you something vastly difderent so another reason for people to not upgrade.