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When I wrote my original comment I certainly had a model that the base rate of travel was pretty comparable to LDN, but I looked at actual figures from a few ye
by ChicagoBoy11 10y ago
When I wrote my original comment I certainly had a model that the base rate of travel was pretty comparable to LDN, but I looked at actual figures from a few years ago and saw that it is in fact 5x smaller.
Nevertheless, the 500,000 figure cited would represent a ~25% bump in the number of visitors (if we use 2012 figures). If you consider the area in Brazil most affected by Zika (which would include São Paulo), then this drops to 10%. You then also have to realize that a lot of those visitors displaced people who did not travel to Rio because of the olympics, which is an effect that is widely documented. Taken into account, I think it is plausible to suggest that the real impact of travel that we'd be seeing would be in the low teens or single digits.
But I think it is certainly debatable, and I guess this is the only point I really wanted to make in my comment -- that THIS is really the focus if you wanted to argue that the games ought to be suspended, but that the article doesn't address it in the least.
- unclebucknasty 10y ago>You then also have to realize that a lot of those visitors displaced people who did not travel to Rio because of the olympics If, as seems to be the case, you're looking at the anticipated percent increase in travel, then you've already included this displacement.
- ChicagoBoy11 10y agoTrue, but how do you know how they reached their 500,000 figure?
- unclebucknasty 10y agoI suppose neither of us can assume.
- ChicagoBoy11 10y agoAgreed - I really wish they had made it the focus of their article.
- SCAQTony 10y agoOpen water swimmers will be swimming in dirty water, sailors all ready have been. The Guardian wrote: Rio 2016: 'Chance of infection very likely' after tests show extent of pollution... Maybe the tourists won't swimming in stagnant water where mosquitoes breed but tourists will be attending nearby while athletes swim in it. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/02/rio-olympics-2016-water-pollution https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2015/dec/02/rio-olympics-2...