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Yeah...the problem with your analysis is that Icahn was never really "short" the market when he said those things. He owned big momentum stocks, as a matter of

Yeah...the problem with your analysis is that Icahn was never really "short" the market when he said those things. He owned big momentum stocks, as a matter of fact, Apple, Netflix, etc. Now he has a massive short position in the market, his money is now where his mouth was/is. The first time in your analysis that he actually said he was hedging, the market took a nose dive of 20%. I think his advice is worth warrant, especially when you have people like Bill Gross saying similar. It's of my opinion that we are in an asset bubble, but we could have a "blow off top" before we really see what happens. Stock declines also generally occur during election years after a 2 term President, so it's a generally good bet for a correction at the very least. But, if I really knew what was going on, I'd be rich.

coredog64 11y ago
That last bit sounds a little "Texas Sharpshooter" to me.
- partiallypro 11y ago
  Economic and market predictions are practically impossible to get right in timing. We can only really see us trending towards something, but that trend could last long enough to lose some serious money. That's why Buffet ignores the noise, and invests long term. I threw that last sentence out there, because, while I think I am right...I've been wrong enough to lose enough money that it genuinely hurt; I don't want anyone reading my post and affirming a bias and losing money. Even if I see eye to eye with some market experts, in the end, a single event could make the opposite occur.
rsync 11y ago
"It's of my opinion that we are in an asset bubble, but we could have a "blow off top" before we really see what happens. Stock declines also generally occur during election years after a 2 term President, so it's a generally good bet for a correction at the very least. But, if I really knew what was going on, I'd be rich." What's missing right now is the taxi driver sentiment ... I don't hear inexperienced investors talking about playing the market or about average folks day trading. Yet.
- rjett 11y ago
  That's because they're all starting start ups. Day trading is so early 2000s.
  - RandomBacon 11y ago
    There was an ad that recently played on the radio for some service that will help you take your money from a retirement account to fund a family member's start-up. I haven't heard it recently, so hopefully some people had enough sense to pull it. Investing retirement money in a family member's start-up is one of the worst ideas I've ever heard of.
nabla9 11y ago
Timing is difficult even if your fundamental analysis is right. Stocks may be overvalued and still go up several years. Shiller PE is over 26, stocks are clearly valued very high. http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

coredog64 11y ago

That last bit sounds a little "Texas Sharpshooter" to me.

partiallypro 11y ago
Economic and market predictions are practically impossible to get right in timing. We can only really see us trending towards something, but that trend could last long enough to lose some serious money. That's why Buffet ignores the noise, and invests long term. I threw that last sentence out there, because, while I think I am right...I've been wrong enough to lose enough money that it genuinely hurt; I don't want anyone reading my post and affirming a bias and losing money. Even if I see eye to eye with some market experts, in the end, a single event could make the opposite occur.

rsync 11y ago

"It's of my opinion that we are in an asset bubble, but we could have a "blow off top" before we really see what happens. Stock declines also generally occur during election years after a 2 term President, so it's a generally good bet for a correction at the very least. But, if I really knew what was going on, I'd be rich." What's missing right now is the taxi driver sentiment ... I don't hear inexperienced investors talking about playing the market or about average folks day trading. Yet.

rjett 11y ago
That's because they're all starting start ups. Day trading is so early 2000s.
- RandomBacon 11y ago
  There was an ad that recently played on the radio for some service that will help you take your money from a retirement account to fund a family member's start-up. I haven't heard it recently, so hopefully some people had enough sense to pull it. Investing retirement money in a family member's start-up is one of the worst ideas I've ever heard of.

nabla9 11y ago

Timing is difficult even if your fundamental analysis is right. Stocks may be overvalued and still go up several years. Shiller PE is over 26, stocks are clearly valued very high. http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/