“Mortgage-default rates are currently very low, but that shouldn’t be any source of comfort because they are always low when the economy is doing well and home

“Mortgage-default rates are currently very low, but that shouldn’t be any source of comfort because they are always low when the economy is doing well and home prices are going up,” said Oliner. “That can turn around quickly if there is a recession.” A chart of 2006-2016 mortgage default rates is instructive: http://au.spindices.com/indices/specialty/sp-experian-first-mortgage-default-index http://au.spindices.com/indices/specialty/sp-experian-first-... (set the time period to ten years) The first mortgage default rate doubled from August 2006 to September 2007. It then doubled again by November 2008, peaking at 5.67% just three years after it was at 0.79%... which is roughly the level we're at today. These things can turn around quite quickly.