3 ms·

> A 1/10000 chance of certain death doesn't sound like something I'd like to take. (maybe I was a little bit off, it's more likely that the risk of failure is

> A 1/10000 chance of certain death doesn't sound like something I'd like to take. (maybe I was a little bit off, it's more likely that the risk of failure is 1/1000, so sum is 1/1.000.000) but the point is, it's more risky to drive back home after the weekend than to recreational cave dive, especially with dive fatigue!

elcapitan 10y ago
> it's more risky to drive back home after the weekend than to recreational cave dive, especially with dive fatigue! I think that's the same issue with risk assessment and mixing up probability and impact: A problem when driving home is not a 100% certain death sentence, and it is not something you could not mitigate. You can drive slower, try to avoid dangerous streets etc. And even in the event of an accident you have systems that might save you (airbag etc).
chimprich 10y ago
You have more risks than just reg failure though. Losing your line, line snapping, floods, rockfall, silt bank collapse, getting physically stuck, just to name a few. Based on the number of cave divers and the number of cave diver deaths over the past few years I would say your odds of dying on a cave dive are far, far higher than driving home. I think if you believe that you are more at risk driving then you haven't assessed the risks accurately. I speak as an experienced caver with several cave diving friends.
crispyambulance 10y ago
These kinds of risk calculations are perhaps useful for insurance companies, but for individuals doing a "dangerous" sports there is more to the risk than merely probability. In particular, with something like cave diving and mountain climbing the "bad" outcome is going to be death of the individual or their friends and it will likely be the result of a series of bad decisions under stress (each of which makes the situation more dire) rather than an exceedingly rare multiple systems failure.

elcapitan 10y ago

> it's more risky to drive back home after the weekend than to recreational cave dive, especially with dive fatigue! I think that's the same issue with risk assessment and mixing up probability and impact: A problem when driving home is not a 100% certain death sentence, and it is not something you could not mitigate. You can drive slower, try to avoid dangerous streets etc. And even in the event of an accident you have systems that might save you (airbag etc).

chimprich 10y ago

You have more risks than just reg failure though. Losing your line, line snapping, floods, rockfall, silt bank collapse, getting physically stuck, just to name a few. Based on the number of cave divers and the number of cave diver deaths over the past few years I would say your odds of dying on a cave dive are far, far higher than driving home. I think if you believe that you are more at risk driving then you haven't assessed the risks accurately. I speak as an experienced caver with several cave diving friends.

crispyambulance 10y ago

These kinds of risk calculations are perhaps useful for insurance companies, but for individuals doing a "dangerous" sports there is more to the risk than merely probability. In particular, with something like cave diving and mountain climbing the "bad" outcome is going to be death of the individual or their friends and it will likely be the result of a series of bad decisions under stress (each of which makes the situation more dire) rather than an exceedingly rare multiple systems failure.