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Having listened to the earnings call, this article makes me facepalm. When explaining the internal July 1 target date, Elon repeatedly said he would explain it

by jrv 10y ago

Having listened to the earnings call, this article makes me facepalm. When explaining the internal July 1 target date, Elon repeatedly said he would explain it at the risk of it being misinterpreted by the media, and then this article misinterprets it. That date was never meant to actually be the production start date, only a date that they are aiming for with all suppliers so that they can hold their feet to the fire when an inevitable few of the thousands of needed parts have delays. Also, about the complexity of building Tesla cars, he points out that the Model 3 is vastly easier to produce than any of the other models, since it was designed expressly for being simple and very easy to manufacture. Go listen to the actual earnings call.

forgetsusername 10y ago
>That date was never meant to actually be the production start date I listen to or read the transcripts of nearly all of them. They're full of ambiguous information and half-truths, and I take them with a grain of salt. This is a classic example; we have a deadline that's not really a deadline. Tesla wants this stuff to be news. >an inevitable few of the thousands of needed parts have delays. Is this inevitable? Does it happen to other manufacturers, who, according to critics, are building far more complex vehicles? >this article makes me facepalm. You don't facepalm at gems like this: UBS Analyst: "And any color when you think about the $190 per kilowatt hour, how much like a CAGR of decline until the Gigafactory is open, another 30% once that's on line?" Elon Musk: "Yeah, next question." So the guy wanted to know how Tesla plans on benefitting from the scale and battery efficiency of the Gigafactory production (originally planned for 2020) if they're moving up the production timetable. In other words, how much is that going to affect the cost of Model 3 production? You don't think that's a valid question?
- jrv 10y ago
  What Elon said made perfect sense to me. They have an internal date of July 1 for both external and internal suppliers to meet. But statistically, given there are thousands of parts, they know it's very unlikely that even with the highest committment, everyone will be ready on time. That's all factored in. So as he said, it will then take some number of months to get those last stragglers sorted out before production can actually start. What would you suggest? Maybe he should just not have mentioned the earlier internal target date, if people are going to be that confused by it. EDIT: as for other manufacturers, I have no idea, but the question is more whether they talk about their internal target dates at all. Elon never said that production actually would start on July 1 (but more like "before end of 2017"), so calling this a "delay" is just wrong.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >That's all factored in You seem to be confused about what "factored in" means: >it will then take some number of months How many months? That's "factoring it in". "Some months" provides zero information. >so calling this a "delay" is just wrong. Of course there's no delay yet, it's all just talk. I think it's people planning for the inevitable delay, based on historical manufacturing results and this nebulous fudge factor. The big news is the call of 500k cars by 2018 (100k-200k in 2017). If they can pull that off it's insane. >their internal target dates at all Again, who cares about some random internal date that may be off by some unknown number of months? What information do we glean from it? It's nigh useless. And other manufacturers are far more transparent about their actual financial and production information.
    - jrv 10y ago
      I don't feel confused about this and still think the article makes it sound like they are missing a publicly promised date (which may still happen in the future, but at the moment and regarding the July 1 date, that's just wrong), but I invite everyone to listen to the call themselves: http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/c67hnavs http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/c67hnavs EDIT: If you do add a bunch of stuff to your comments after the fact, it'd be nice to put an EDIT marker somewhere at least.
      - forgetsusername 10y ago
        >If you do add a bunch of stuff to your comments after the fact I added a couple lines and fixed typos, within minutes of posting. Maybe you could mellow out and not feel like you need to reply instantaneously? The Tesla fans are touchy today...
        dang 10y ago
        Your comments continue to be uncivil despite repeated requests to stop doing this. I almost banned your account for this, but it does seem like your comments have improved, so instead I'll just ask you to please improve them more. That means respecting the people you're talking to, even if they're wrong, instead of jabbing them.
- thegranderson 10y ago
  Re: the UBS analyst question - I thought this was a totally fair response by Elon. In his previous question, the UBS guy asked Elon where their battery costs would be by the time the Model 3 launches, and Elon said he felt was proprietary. Then the guy basically asks the EXACT same thing, but rather than asking for the final price, he asked for the pace of reduction (CAGR) in price, over a given amount of time (until the Gigafactory is open, and once it is online)... which would allow him to calculate cost/kwh when Model 3 launches. Musk politely answered a whole series of questions from this and other analysts, only cutting them off if they asked something stupid - like this guy. You're not gonna trick Elon Musk into giving you more data by asking the question a different way.
  - forgetsusername 10y ago
    >the UBS guy asked Elon where their battery costs would be by the time the Model 3 launches, and Elon said he felt was proprietary. What is "proprietary" about it? Previous plans and costing were based on the Gigafactory being able to achieve scale by 2020. That production is being bumped forward two years, so what effect will it have on costs? Why would we assume they can suddenly get the same savings in less time? It's a good question from an investor's perspective. >Musk politely answered a whole series of questions from this and other analysts Yeah, he loves answering Adam Jonas. Many of these guys are practically shills. Some of their questions are embarrassing. >You're not gonna trick Elon Musk into giving you more data by asking the question a different way. Here's the thing HN doesn't seem to get: this is a public company. People have the right to ask questions. In fact, more questions should be asked of companies like this, that are losing vast sums of money yet have sky-high valuations. That's the difference between genuinely curious people and those who are willing to take what the CEO says at his word, for everything. Watch for an equity offering soon, something else that we were told wouldn't happen.
    - erikpukinskis 10y ago
      > this is a public company. People have the right to ask questions. He did ask the question. You have the right to ask questions of a private company too. And both private and public companies have the right not to answer. Everything they're required to make public is already in the filings. You seem to be indicating that they're required to say more, but they're not.

by jrv 10y ago

forgetsusername 10y ago

>That date was never meant to actually be the production start date I listen to or read the transcripts of nearly all of them. They're full of ambiguous information and half-truths, and I take them with a grain of salt. This is a classic example; we have a deadline that's not really a deadline. Tesla wants this stuff to be news. >an inevitable few of the thousands of needed parts have delays. Is this inevitable? Does it happen to other manufacturers, who, according to critics, are building far more complex vehicles? >this article makes me facepalm. You don't facepalm at gems like this: UBS Analyst: "And any color when you think about the $190 per kilowatt hour, how much like a CAGR of decline until the Gigafactory is open, another 30% once that's on line?" Elon Musk: "Yeah, next question." So the guy wanted to know how Tesla plans on benefitting from the scale and battery efficiency of the Gigafactory production (originally planned for 2020) if they're moving up the production timetable. In other words, how much is that going to affect the cost of Model 3 production? You don't think that's a valid question?

jrv 10y ago
What Elon said made perfect sense to me. They have an internal date of July 1 for both external and internal suppliers to meet. But statistically, given there are thousands of parts, they know it's very unlikely that even with the highest committment, everyone will be ready on time. That's all factored in. So as he said, it will then take some number of months to get those last stragglers sorted out before production can actually start. What would you suggest? Maybe he should just not have mentioned the earlier internal target date, if people are going to be that confused by it. EDIT: as for other manufacturers, I have no idea, but the question is more whether they talk about their internal target dates at all. Elon never said that production actually would start on July 1 (but more like "before end of 2017"), so calling this a "delay" is just wrong.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >That's all factored in You seem to be confused about what "factored in" means: >it will then take some number of months How many months? That's "factoring it in". "Some months" provides zero information. >so calling this a "delay" is just wrong. Of course there's no delay yet, it's all just talk. I think it's people planning for the inevitable delay, based on historical manufacturing results and this nebulous fudge factor. The big news is the call of 500k cars by 2018 (100k-200k in 2017). If they can pull that off it's insane. >their internal target dates at all Again, who cares about some random internal date that may be off by some unknown number of months? What information do we glean from it? It's nigh useless. And other manufacturers are far more transparent about their actual financial and production information.
  - jrv 10y ago
    I don't feel confused about this and still think the article makes it sound like they are missing a publicly promised date (which may still happen in the future, but at the moment and regarding the July 1 date, that's just wrong), but I invite everyone to listen to the call themselves: http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/c67hnavs http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/c67hnavs EDIT: If you do add a bunch of stuff to your comments after the fact, it'd be nice to put an EDIT marker somewhere at least.
    - forgetsusername 10y ago
      >If you do add a bunch of stuff to your comments after the fact I added a couple lines and fixed typos, within minutes of posting. Maybe you could mellow out and not feel like you need to reply instantaneously? The Tesla fans are touchy today...
      - dang 10y ago
        Your comments continue to be uncivil despite repeated requests to stop doing this. I almost banned your account for this, but it does seem like your comments have improved, so instead I'll just ask you to please improve them more. That means respecting the people you're talking to, even if they're wrong, instead of jabbing them.
thegranderson 10y ago
Re: the UBS analyst question - I thought this was a totally fair response by Elon. In his previous question, the UBS guy asked Elon where their battery costs would be by the time the Model 3 launches, and Elon said he felt was proprietary. Then the guy basically asks the EXACT same thing, but rather than asking for the final price, he asked for the pace of reduction (CAGR) in price, over a given amount of time (until the Gigafactory is open, and once it is online)... which would allow him to calculate cost/kwh when Model 3 launches. Musk politely answered a whole series of questions from this and other analysts, only cutting them off if they asked something stupid - like this guy. You're not gonna trick Elon Musk into giving you more data by asking the question a different way.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >the UBS guy asked Elon where their battery costs would be by the time the Model 3 launches, and Elon said he felt was proprietary. What is "proprietary" about it? Previous plans and costing were based on the Gigafactory being able to achieve scale by 2020. That production is being bumped forward two years, so what effect will it have on costs? Why would we assume they can suddenly get the same savings in less time? It's a good question from an investor's perspective. >Musk politely answered a whole series of questions from this and other analysts Yeah, he loves answering Adam Jonas. Many of these guys are practically shills. Some of their questions are embarrassing. >You're not gonna trick Elon Musk into giving you more data by asking the question a different way. Here's the thing HN doesn't seem to get: this is a public company. People have the right to ask questions. In fact, more questions should be asked of companies like this, that are losing vast sums of money yet have sky-high valuations. That's the difference between genuinely curious people and those who are willing to take what the CEO says at his word, for everything. Watch for an equity offering soon, something else that we were told wouldn't happen.
  - erikpukinskis 10y ago
    > this is a public company. People have the right to ask questions. He did ask the question. You have the right to ask questions of a private company too. And both private and public companies have the right not to answer. Everything they're required to make public is already in the filings. You seem to be indicating that they're required to say more, but they're not.