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What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dre

by apalmer 10y ago

What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...

pbreit 10y ago
What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.
- dragontamer 10y ago
  Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
  - abalone 10y ago
    That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
    - dragontamer 10y ago
      > That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot. I thought the "Roadster" was when they were supposed to get all of these issues figured out. The Model 3 has to be built in a year in capacities of (wtf?) 500,000 / year by 2018 or something. There's no room for experimentation here. Elon Musk is ramping up production extremely fast and has set stunningly high expectations. --------- Now, don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is a great company with a great vision. And that Musk is doing his best. But what I'm trying to say is that this company's balance sheet, and reliability record with their cars is causing me some concern at this point. I would like it if Tesla could succeed, but I'm not going to hold back on criticism just because I like their mission.
      - deleted 10y ago
        [deleted]
      - baddox 10y ago
        No, it's still anecdotal evidence unless you actually have a meaningful statistic gathered through scientific inquiry. If you have just heard several people complain about failures, that's anecdotal evidence. After all, that is precisely the definition of "anecdotal evidence."
        dragontamer 10y ago
        You really don't know, do you? http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/ http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt... > As part of our Annual Auto Reliability Survey, we received about 1,400 survey responses from Model S owners who chronicled an array of detailed and complicated maladies. I'm not kidding when I'm saying this "isn't anecdotal" anymore. Over a THOUSAND reports have come in, and the consensus is that Tesla is NOT reliable.
- apalmer 10y ago
  Tesla has one facility, which is definitely state of the art, and has some of the largest automobile manufacturing robots in the world... on the other hand toyota has about 40-70 plants of varying level of technological advancement... its quite a range because some are only operated by toyota not owned... there more recently opened factories such is the one in Mississippi are pretty much universally accepted amongst the most advanced in the world... In fact Tesla's current factory is actually an upgraded old ford/toyota partnership which was upgraded as part of a tesla/toyota partnership... which is all to really say... 1 plant vs 40-70 plants... 90K vehicles produced per year to 9,000K vehicle/year... unproven manufacturing prowess vs universally accepted best manufacturing capability toyota is universally accepted as having the most advanced automotive manufacturing as far as major manufacturing... Even Elon Musk wouldnt have the balls to make the claims you guys are making here... please lets stick to reality. i wish tesla well... they i think are going to be the main catalyst in popularizing the electric car... will they actually hit 500K units in 2018 out of the Fremont factory? seems unlikely given their track record but maybe... i mean toyota was able to produce that much out of the same facility before it was upgrade about a decade ago so its possible...
  - jblow 10y ago
    Companies always start small. Your argument is basically "the small company is small". So what? Do you propose that business can work in some other way? How else would you propose that it works?
  - pbreit 10y ago
    Elon setting aggressive goals is a management tactic and it works well for him. Sure, it'll probably slip till 2019. But if the goal was 2019, it would slip to 2020.

by apalmer 10y ago

pbreit 10y ago

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.

dragontamer 10y ago
Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
- abalone 10y ago
  That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    > That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot. I thought the "Roadster" was when they were supposed to get all of these issues figured out. The Model 3 has to be built in a year in capacities of (wtf?) 500,000 / year by 2018 or something. There's no room for experimentation here. Elon Musk is ramping up production extremely fast and has set stunningly high expectations. --------- Now, don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is a great company with a great vision. And that Musk is doing his best. But what I'm trying to say is that this company's balance sheet, and reliability record with their cars is causing me some concern at this point. I would like it if Tesla could succeed, but I'm not going to hold back on criticism just because I like their mission.
    - deleted 10y ago
      [deleted]
    - baddox 10y ago
      No, it's still anecdotal evidence unless you actually have a meaningful statistic gathered through scientific inquiry. If you have just heard several people complain about failures, that's anecdotal evidence. After all, that is precisely the definition of "anecdotal evidence."
      - dragontamer 10y ago
        You really don't know, do you? http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance/ http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt... > As part of our Annual Auto Reliability Survey, we received about 1,400 survey responses from Model S owners who chronicled an array of detailed and complicated maladies. I'm not kidding when I'm saying this "isn't anecdotal" anymore. Over a THOUSAND reports have come in, and the consensus is that Tesla is NOT reliable.
apalmer 10y ago
Tesla has one facility, which is definitely state of the art, and has some of the largest automobile manufacturing robots in the world... on the other hand toyota has about 40-70 plants of varying level of technological advancement... its quite a range because some are only operated by toyota not owned... there more recently opened factories such is the one in Mississippi are pretty much universally accepted amongst the most advanced in the world... In fact Tesla's current factory is actually an upgraded old ford/toyota partnership which was upgraded as part of a tesla/toyota partnership... which is all to really say... 1 plant vs 40-70 plants... 90K vehicles produced per year to 9,000K vehicle/year... unproven manufacturing prowess vs universally accepted best manufacturing capability toyota is universally accepted as having the most advanced automotive manufacturing as far as major manufacturing... Even Elon Musk wouldnt have the balls to make the claims you guys are making here... please lets stick to reality. i wish tesla well... they i think are going to be the main catalyst in popularizing the electric car... will they actually hit 500K units in 2018 out of the Fremont factory? seems unlikely given their track record but maybe... i mean toyota was able to produce that much out of the same facility before it was upgrade about a decade ago so its possible...
- jblow 10y ago
  Companies always start small. Your argument is basically "the small company is small". So what? Do you propose that business can work in some other way? How else would you propose that it works?
- pbreit 10y ago
  Elon setting aggressive goals is a management tactic and it works well for him. Sure, it'll probably slip till 2019. But if the goal was 2019, it would slip to 2020.