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>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the tech

by tmptmp 10y ago

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars. Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.

apalmer 10y ago
What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...
- pbreit 10y ago
  What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
    - abalone 10y ago
      That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
      - dragontamer 10y ago
        > That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot. I thought the "Roadster" was when they were supposed to get all of these issues figured out. The Model 3 has to be built in a year in capacities of (wtf?) 500,000 / year by 2018 or something. There's no room for experimentation here. Elon Musk is ramping up production extremely fast and has set stunningly high expectations. --------- Now, don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is a great company with a great vision. And that Musk is doing his best. But what I'm trying to say is that this company's balance sheet, and reliability record with their cars is causing me some concern at this point. I would like it if Tesla could succeed, but I'm not going to hold back on criticism just because I like their mission.
kalleboo 10y ago
> there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars Do you have any good articles that explain this difference? I'm honestly curious what changes when you change the propulsion system.
mtgx 10y ago
It's also very likely that the car makers of the future will be the ones that are best at software, not hardware, ironically enough.

by tmptmp 10y ago

apalmer 10y ago

What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...

pbreit 10y ago
What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.
- dragontamer 10y ago
  Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
  - abalone 10y ago
    That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
    - dragontamer 10y ago
      > That actually is anecdotal evidence. If it happened ONCE its anecdotal evidence. If it happens repeatedly to different reporters around the world? That's a statistic. The Model S drive unit is not reliable. Period. It doesn't matter how "simple" an electric motor theoretically is, in practice, the Model S motor has clear drive unit issues. > Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot. I thought the "Roadster" was when they were supposed to get all of these issues figured out. The Model 3 has to be built in a year in capacities of (wtf?) 500,000 / year by 2018 or something. There's no room for experimentation here. Elon Musk is ramping up production extremely fast and has set stunningly high expectations. --------- Now, don't get me wrong, I think Tesla is a great company with a great vision. And that Musk is doing his best. But what I'm trying to say is that this company's balance sheet, and reliability record with their cars is causing me some concern at this point. I would like it if Tesla could succeed, but I'm not going to hold back on criticism just because I like their mission.

kalleboo 10y ago

> there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars Do you have any good articles that explain this difference? I'm honestly curious what changes when you change the propulsion system.

mtgx 10y ago

It's also very likely that the car makers of the future will be the ones that are best at software, not hardware, ironically enough.