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There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a

by apalmer 10y ago

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. Toyota is not a lumbering clumsy inefficient organization, it is a sharp nimble efficient organization... It only makes rational sense that Tesla should follow their lead

tmptmp 10y ago
>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars. Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.
- apalmer 10y ago
  What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...
  - pbreit 10y ago
    What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.
    - dragontamer 10y ago
      Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
      - abalone 10y ago
        That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
- kalleboo 10y ago
  > there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars Do you have any good articles that explain this difference? I'm honestly curious what changes when you change the propulsion system.
- mtgx 10y ago
  It's also very likely that the car makers of the future will be the ones that are best at software, not hardware, ironically enough.
flexie 10y ago
Tesla, while an engineering wonder, is much less complex to produce than cumbustion engine vehicles. It's a wheeled computer. I suspect their challenge will be more about getting enough resources for batteries and finishing the production plant. Remember, right after apple launched the iphone and experts claimed smartphones were for the first world while growth would be in the third world?
- majormajor 10y ago
  Having issues with, say, your gull-wing doors is not specific to electric cars. Same with the issues they're having with the Model 3 and suppliers not being able to meet the dates they want. (Drive units dying is specific to electric cars, but that's also likely to just be teething pains.) There's a lot more to a car these days than a power plant. The engine is, comparatively speaking, the solved problem for car reliability these days, at least in the first 100k or 200k miles. One of the most common characteristics of unreliable or fancy traditional cars is flaky electronic systems, as Telsa is as complicated as anyone there.

by apalmer 10y ago

tmptmp 10y ago

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars. Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.

apalmer 10y ago
What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of competition, crony government contracts, in an industry that is primarily product engineering driven that requires a small volume manufacturing of extreme high complexity vehicles In Tesla he is competing against highly efficient opponents who have been in a dog eat dog survival of the fittest competition for going on 40 years which is only somewhat product engineering driven and high volume manufacturing of relatively low complexity vehicles. Tesla can overcome this... possibly but it is a huge challenge that a responsible investor cannot sweep under the rug...
- pbreit 10y ago
  What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.
  - dragontamer 10y ago
    Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years? http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed. The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S. Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness. http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-stuck-on-the-freeway.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-is-the-third-drive-unit-the-charm.html http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes... And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate. --------- Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM
    - abalone 10y ago
      That actually is anecdotal evidence. Anyway, the Model S was explicitly the stepping stone project to get to the Model 3 (i.e. Musk stated this). They've probably learned a lot.
kalleboo 10y ago
> there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars Do you have any good articles that explain this difference? I'm honestly curious what changes when you change the propulsion system.
mtgx 10y ago
It's also very likely that the car makers of the future will be the ones that are best at software, not hardware, ironically enough.

flexie 10y ago

Tesla, while an engineering wonder, is much less complex to produce than cumbustion engine vehicles. It's a wheeled computer. I suspect their challenge will be more about getting enough resources for batteries and finishing the production plant. Remember, right after apple launched the iphone and experts claimed smartphones were for the first world while growth would be in the third world?

majormajor 10y ago
Having issues with, say, your gull-wing doors is not specific to electric cars. Same with the issues they're having with the Model 3 and suppliers not being able to meet the dates they want. (Drive units dying is specific to electric cars, but that's also likely to just be teething pains.) There's a lot more to a car these days than a power plant. The engine is, comparatively speaking, the solved problem for car reliability these days, at least in the first 100k or 200k miles. One of the most common characteristics of unreliable or fancy traditional cars is flaky electronic systems, as Telsa is as complicated as anyone there.