>-They can't have any unforeseen issues op recalls crop up with the Model S or Model X. This is a service issue, not production. Tesla has weathered recalls be

>-They can't have any unforeseen issues op recalls crop up with the Model S or Model X. This is a service issue, not production. Tesla has weathered recalls before. Of course an expensive major recall could delay their capex investment, but it's in no way true that any unforeseen issues will cause a delay. >- They battery factory has to come online without a hitch. The factory is already online. It will have to ramp production, and accordingly it's a major focus for the company. >- The price of lithium and other rare earth minerals has to remain steady, I've heard that its very hard to hedge these prices due to a lack of counterparties willing to take on the risk Lithium is not a rare earth metal, nor are any rare earth metals used in Tesla batteries. The price of lithium makes up a tiny percentage of the overall battery cost -- nickel and cobalt are both more significant cost drivers. >- their rumored/china manufacturing plant has to come online smoothly Not needed. Fremont can deliver 500,000 cars/year on its own. >- and off course they need to be able to ramp up manufacturing on a car they've never produced Which is why this is Tesla's other main focus. The same can be said of any new product. Everything ever produced was "never produced"... until it was. So... 2/5.