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>> I dump them on the market, I'm sorry, that's an invalid assumption. Especially in a world with only passive investors. GM has been losing $1 billion a quar
by meric 10y ago
>> I dump them on the market,
I'm sorry, that's an invalid assumption. Especially in a world with only passive investors.
GM has been losing $1 billion a quarter for 10 quarters. GM's stock price is $30 as it has been since 10 quarters ago, market capitalisation $40B. It is running out of cash building unprofitable products. The underwriter calls various index funds, telling them there will be a capital raising of $10B, at $28 per share, representing a ~5% discount, and as a result of that, GM's weighting in the index is going to be re-weighted upwards at the next index balance in three weeks, so they might as well sell other (more productive) stocks, which will be weighted downwards, and buy GM at a discount. The capital raising is "oversubscribed" because of this arbitrage opportunity. As a result of the discount, the stock price of GM falls from $30 to $29.50 ($2 times by roughly 25%). GM's stock price falls 0.16% per quarter, and can sustain this rate indefinitely because of passive investors.
In a stock market with active investors, GM's fall in stock price would be a lot more than 50 cents.
Passive investors represent inertia that will keep the current ratios of market capitalisation between companies listed on the stock exchange constant, even if those ratios are suboptimal economically. As a result of the stunted capital allocation, the economy will begin to shrink, over the long run, as it continues to support unprofitable companies by depressing the share prices of the more productive companies, since, ironically, those more productive companies raise much less money than the unprofitable ones, and those capital raisings funded by selling the other companies that aren't raising money.