> As for the theory being obvious, as far as I know, no one has proposed it before. Election forecasters are proud when they can achieve the same results with m

> As for the theory being obvious, as far as I know, no one has proposed it before. Election forecasters are proud when they can achieve the same results with much more complicated models. People have been saying for ages that the politician that wins is the one who you can envision yourself having a beer with. Sounds to me like the exact theory he presents.