Keep in mind that most prognostication re: the Trump campaign has failed. That's the trouble with inductive models; there's always the potential for some event

Keep in mind that most prognostication re: the Trump campaign has failed. That's the trouble with inductive models; there's always the potential for some event that could happen that hasn't happened yet, and it breaks your model. It's possible Trump falls into that category; 'charismatic' by some ill-defined measure, but unelectable (in the general election).