Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "humans have an innate means of determining confidence in a particular hypothesis based on perceived evidence". From a

Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "humans have an innate means of determining confidence in a particular hypothesis based on perceived evidence". From an objective standpoint, evidence is either black or white. But for our brains, beliefs and biases may be given equal weight with objective truth. Whether or not those beliefs are rooted in truth is a question ultimately controlled by each person's worldview and their understanding of scientific reasoning. The underlying algorithms may still be based on statistics, albeit statistics with unreliable data. Or, in the example provided, perhaps the tribe's statistical models were warped enough by cultural/religious/conventional wisdom (unreliable data) that they really did express a high level of confidence in an otherwise outlandish idea - a confidence based on statistically sound evaluation, only fed with bad data.