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As someone who actually spends a lot of money on Facebook ads and thus has a little more insight on where those revenues are coming from, I'll take jaquems side
by il 17y ago
As someone who actually spends a lot of money on Facebook ads and thus has a little more insight on where those revenues are coming from, I'll take jaquems side too.
A significant portion of that increase in revenues is due to ad policy changes and deals with branders rather than any type of growth that could be sustainable in the future.
- gojomo 17y agoI'm happy to take more action. (It's like a few shares of Facebook stock!) Same amount, same terms? (FB revenue>$2B for 2014 I win, <$2B revenue you win, murky situations go to an HN poll?) I don't think FB has yet found their revenue-rocket equivalent to AdWords -- current ads are not it -- but I think they will.
- il 17y agoAllright, I'm down for $100 for the same terms, my email is in my profile so you know how to reach me. What happens to the bet if FB is acquired?
- gojomo 17y agoOn the original jacquesm bet, I suggested we use the apparent revenues of Facebook-as-a-division. That might be tricky to measure depending on the acquirer's reporting and integration plans, but as I suspect any acquirer will be -- (1) a giant public company with detailed quarterly reporting; and (2) eager to keep 'Facebook' as a separate brand/division -- I think it's ultimately resolvable to sufficient confidence for someone to concede (or defer to a poll result). However, if you prefer for an acquisition to mean "bet's off (no action)", I'd be OK with that, too. Just express a preference before an acquisition happens, or my preference -- calculate it as a division -- should stand. (I like FB to make this revenue target standalone; I like them as part of Google/MSFT/Apple/Disney/etc.; I like them in a box, I like them with a fox; I like them in a house, I like them with a mouse.)