5 ms·

This is pretty much the definition of a "faster horse" scenario. Most of the population perceive the world as it is, not as it could be. (This is the S vs N in

This is pretty much the definition of a "faster horse" scenario. Most of the population perceive the world as it is, not as it could be. (This is the S vs N in Meyers-Briggs.) It will actually be insurance companies that force the change at the consumer level. Charging crazy premiums for irrational holdouts that insist that their love of driving is better than safer transportation will force the hands of many from "no thanks" to "well, if I can save $500/month..." However, regardless of consumer uptake it's the long-haul trucking companies that stand the most to gain from autonomous vehicles. I don't have a stat handy but robot long-haul would be 25% the price and 4x faster. Something like 20% of highway accidents involve big rigs.

steego 11y ago
I really don't think people will be the irrational holdouts they claim to be. People say a lot of silly things they don't actually mean. While many of us enjoy the feeling behind the wheel now and then, it's actually a nuisance for most people most of the time. One thing I'd love to see is a safe racing mode where the computer allows people to drive like maniacs, but intervenes before the situation actually becomes dangerous. I suspect at some point automatic drivers will become so precise they will truly be able to scare the shit out of passengers safely.
- zyxley 11y ago
  > I suspect at some point automatic drivers will become so precise they will truly be able to scare the shit out of passengers safely. You can pretty much get that already on closed test tracks, with self-driving cars that do 'speed runs'. An example (though without passengers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol3g7i64RAI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol3g7i64RAI
random_upvoter 11y ago
> Charging crazy premiums As such, I see no reason why insurance companies would have an agenda against human drivers. Insurance companies will charge rational premiums that make them competitive against other insurance companies. It may very well be that insurance premiums for human drivers go down because AI drivers improve road safety.
- dmoy 11y ago
  I think the implication here is just crazy=high, not crazy=irrational. If AI cars end up vastly safer, it stands to reason they will have much lower insurance premiums. (I don't know if it'll be $500/month difference though, that sounds quite high)
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Supposedly a Tesla on autopilot is already twice as safe as a human driver: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/25/elon-musk-teslas-autopilot-makes-accidents-50pc-less-likely/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/25/elon-musk-t... > "The probability of having an accident is 50 per cent lower if you have Autopilot on," said Musk, speaking at an energy conference in Oslo, Norway. "Even with our first version, it's almost twice as good as a person."
    - dsfyu404ed 11y ago
      Assuming it's true and not some stretch of the truth for marketing purposes, it's twice as good as some value representing a typical driver. Much better than the current typical driver may not be that much better than the future typical human driver in a future where driving is voluntary (after all the "I don't trust no stinkin computer" people are too senile to drive). The people who choose to do something because they are personally motivated to do it tend to become much better than the people who do something because they have to... a phenomenon which is clearly observable in most high-school math classes.
Gibbon1 11y ago
Probably costs $3000/mo for a driver. $2000/mo capital costs. Ditch the driver and increase the miles traveled from 10,000 to 20,000 miles. Monthly costs, Capital $2000 $2500 Driver $3000 --- Fuel $5000 $10000 Total $10000 $12500 Miles 10000 20000 $/mile $1.00 $0.63 Cost reduction of 37%
riprowan 11y ago
Came here to say what you said. Insurance companies will force the change. Starting, as you pointed out, with trucking. The trucking industry will be forced to automate. As soon as it is demonstrable that automated trucks are far safer - and faster, as they need no breaks - then trucking companies will be forced to automate or die. Passenger cars will follow thereafter. People will maintain the right to drive their own cars, but only at prohibitively high insurance rates. When humans are no longer responsible for piloting the vehicle, it no longer makes sense to sell the vehicle to them, as there is no need to assign the risk to one individual. Instead, rented / leased vehicles will be much cheaper, and timesharing / ridesharing will be much more feasible.

steego 11y ago

I really don't think people will be the irrational holdouts they claim to be. People say a lot of silly things they don't actually mean. While many of us enjoy the feeling behind the wheel now and then, it's actually a nuisance for most people most of the time. One thing I'd love to see is a safe racing mode where the computer allows people to drive like maniacs, but intervenes before the situation actually becomes dangerous. I suspect at some point automatic drivers will become so precise they will truly be able to scare the shit out of passengers safely.

zyxley 11y ago
> I suspect at some point automatic drivers will become so precise they will truly be able to scare the shit out of passengers safely. You can pretty much get that already on closed test tracks, with self-driving cars that do 'speed runs'. An example (though without passengers): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol3g7i64RAI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ol3g7i64RAI

random_upvoter 11y ago

> Charging crazy premiums As such, I see no reason why insurance companies would have an agenda against human drivers. Insurance companies will charge rational premiums that make them competitive against other insurance companies. It may very well be that insurance premiums for human drivers go down because AI drivers improve road safety.

dmoy 11y ago
I think the implication here is just crazy=high, not crazy=irrational. If AI cars end up vastly safer, it stands to reason they will have much lower insurance premiums. (I don't know if it'll be $500/month difference though, that sounds quite high)
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Supposedly a Tesla on autopilot is already twice as safe as a human driver: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/25/elon-musk-teslas-autopilot-makes-accidents-50pc-less-likely/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/04/25/elon-musk-t... > "The probability of having an accident is 50 per cent lower if you have Autopilot on," said Musk, speaking at an energy conference in Oslo, Norway. "Even with our first version, it's almost twice as good as a person."
  - dsfyu404ed 11y ago
    Assuming it's true and not some stretch of the truth for marketing purposes, it's twice as good as some value representing a typical driver. Much better than the current typical driver may not be that much better than the future typical human driver in a future where driving is voluntary (after all the "I don't trust no stinkin computer" people are too senile to drive). The people who choose to do something because they are personally motivated to do it tend to become much better than the people who do something because they have to... a phenomenon which is clearly observable in most high-school math classes.

Gibbon1 11y ago

Probably costs $3000/mo for a driver. $2000/mo capital costs. Ditch the driver and increase the miles traveled from 10,000 to 20,000 miles. Monthly costs, Capital $2000 $2500 Driver $3000 --- Fuel $5000 $10000 Total $10000 $12500 Miles 10000 20000 $/mile $1.00 $0.63 Cost reduction of 37%

riprowan 11y ago

Came here to say what you said. Insurance companies will force the change. Starting, as you pointed out, with trucking. The trucking industry will be forced to automate. As soon as it is demonstrable that automated trucks are far safer - and faster, as they need no breaks - then trucking companies will be forced to automate or die. Passenger cars will follow thereafter. People will maintain the right to drive their own cars, but only at prohibitively high insurance rates. When humans are no longer responsible for piloting the vehicle, it no longer makes sense to sell the vehicle to them, as there is no need to assign the risk to one individual. Instead, rented / leased vehicles will be much cheaper, and timesharing / ridesharing will be much more feasible.