Past performance should be a predictor of future performance if the forces driving the market remain similar to the forces driving it in the past. If they are

Past performance should be a predictor of future performance if the forces driving the market remain similar to the forces driving it in the past. If they are not the same, then past performance may be a very bad predictor. But even in that case it is hard to imagine I'd do better by picking individual stocks unless I start researching companies as a full-time job.