4 ms·
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - we're now at the 6th season of hearing "winter is coming", it's bound to happen any time now.
by roel_v 11y ago
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy - we're now at the 6th season of hearing "winter is coming", it's bound to happen any time now.
- dfsegoat 11y agoGambler's fallacy.
- xerophyte12932 11y agoI haven't read that but I assume it goes along the lines of... Gambler: "I already got five 6's. I can't possibly get another one. That's a statistical improbability!" Wrong assumption: Past dice rolls affect future rolls where as dice rolls are independent. Its improbably to get six 6's in a row but GIVEN that you have 5 sixes, getting a sixth is just 1/6 Am I right?
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- imh 11y agoThere's also a reverse version with the same mistaken assumption. Gambler: "I already got five 6's. I must be on a roll! I'll surely get another one."
- armitron 11y agoThe correct assumption to make in this case would be that the dice is loaded. Same decision, different reasoning.
- xerophyte12932 11y agoWell, getting five 6's in a row is 1/7776 , so I suppose it is debatable if one could establish the dice are loaded from such a small sample set.
- dfsegoat 11y agoHot hand fallacy
- roel_v 11y agowoosh