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>After Indiana, Trump will inevitably have enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot, so that's that. You don't know that. Kasich is still in the ra

>After Indiana, Trump will inevitably have enough pledged delegates to win on the first ballot, so that's that. You don't know that. Kasich is still in the race for a reason. All they have to do is keep Trump from getting to that magic number of delegates, and then they go to a brokered convention. It's a bit of a long shot, but it's still possible, especially with Cruz out of the way.

Lazare 11y ago
Trump has 1,047 pledged delegates; he needs 1,237 to win on the first ballot without relying on unpledged delegates. That means he needs 190 more to remove even a chance of losing. There are 520 delegates still up for grabs; that means he needs just over a third of them. Which...he's going to get. Projections had him getting at least 133 delegates in California before his only serious rival dropped out, and he's got a lock on 51 delegates from NJ. Add in the proportional share he'll get from Washington and Oregon based on current totals, and... ...yeah. It's over. The reason Cruz dropped out is he can do the math. If he'd won Indiana, AND all the other contests still up for grabs, Trump could have been stopped short of 1,237. With Indiana in his pocket, he can't be.
- Grishnakh 11y ago
  >There are 520 delegates still up for grabs; that means he needs just over a third of them. Which...he's going to get. You don't know that; you're making assumptions. When this race started, everyone thought the idea of Trump making it this far was utterly ridiculous, because of their own assumptions at the time. I admit it's a real long shot, but the elections aren't over yet. Anything could happen. If it were really over, Kasich would have dropped out too. Cruz dropped out because it's both mathematically impossible for him to get 1237 votes, and for him to get the nomination in a brokered convention (he's just too unpopular within his party). Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237. Finally, who knows what kind of things are going on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it.
  - Grishnakh 11y ago
    Ok, it's not a long shot any more, Trump's the winner now that Kasich has dropped out. This is going to be an interesting election. I predict half the Democrat voters are going to vote for Trump, and half the Republican voters are going to vote for Hillary. It'd be really interesting if Bernie changed his mind and decided to run as an independent. With so many people hating both Trump and Hillary, Bernie could actually win that one, maybe.
  - Lazare 11y ago
    > If it were really over, Kasich would have dropped out too. It was over for Kasich a LONG time ago, but he stayed in. > Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237. ...I feel like we've been watching different races. With different candidates. On a different planet. > I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it. Both parties have survived worse nominees. The Democrats survived Mcgovern after all.
    - Grishnakh 11y ago
      >...I feel like we've been watching different races. With different candidates. On a different planet. I guess so, if you really think the GOP actually likes either Trump or Cruz. They haven't hidden their contempt for either of those two, and the idea that either of them would win the nomination in a brokered convention is sheer lunacy. This is moot now, since Cruz and Kasich have suspended their campaigns. But seriously, how can you not think Kasich would be an easy win if, through some miracle for the GOP, they got a brokered convention? Who do you think would win?

Lazare 11y ago

Trump has 1,047 pledged delegates; he needs 1,237 to win on the first ballot without relying on unpledged delegates. That means he needs 190 more to remove even a chance of losing. There are 520 delegates still up for grabs; that means he needs just over a third of them. Which...he's going to get. Projections had him getting at least 133 delegates in California before his only serious rival dropped out, and he's got a lock on 51 delegates from NJ. Add in the proportional share he'll get from Washington and Oregon based on current totals, and... ...yeah. It's over. The reason Cruz dropped out is he can do the math. If he'd won Indiana, AND all the other contests still up for grabs, Trump could have been stopped short of 1,237. With Indiana in his pocket, he can't be.

Grishnakh 11y ago
>There are 520 delegates still up for grabs; that means he needs just over a third of them. Which...he's going to get. You don't know that; you're making assumptions. When this race started, everyone thought the idea of Trump making it this far was utterly ridiculous, because of their own assumptions at the time. I admit it's a real long shot, but the elections aren't over yet. Anything could happen. If it were really over, Kasich would have dropped out too. Cruz dropped out because it's both mathematically impossible for him to get 1237 votes, and for him to get the nomination in a brokered convention (he's just too unpopular within his party). Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237. Finally, who knows what kind of things are going on behind the scenes. I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it.
- Grishnakh 11y ago
  Ok, it's not a long shot any more, Trump's the winner now that Kasich has dropped out. This is going to be an interesting election. I predict half the Democrat voters are going to vote for Trump, and half the Republican voters are going to vote for Hillary. It'd be really interesting if Bernie changed his mind and decided to run as an independent. With so many people hating both Trump and Hillary, Bernie could actually win that one, maybe.
- Lazare 11y ago
  > If it were really over, Kasich would have dropped out too. It was over for Kasich a LONG time ago, but he stayed in. > Kasich will be an easy win at the brokered convention if that happens, so he's staying in until Trump reaches 1237. ...I feel like we've been watching different races. With different candidates. On a different planet. > I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP pulls some really dirty tricks to deny Trump the nomination somehow. Face it, their survival depends on it. Both parties have survived worse nominees. The Democrats survived Mcgovern after all.
  - Grishnakh 11y ago
    >...I feel like we've been watching different races. With different candidates. On a different planet. I guess so, if you really think the GOP actually likes either Trump or Cruz. They haven't hidden their contempt for either of those two, and the idea that either of them would win the nomination in a brokered convention is sheer lunacy. This is moot now, since Cruz and Kasich have suspended their campaigns. But seriously, how can you not think Kasich would be an easy win if, through some miracle for the GOP, they got a brokered convention? Who do you think would win?