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There's not much reason (and even less empirical evidence[1]) to believe that U.S. stocks should follow U.S. economic growth rates. [1]: http://www.economist.c

• kragen 10y ago
  To summarize the article, the long-run correlation between stock prices and economic growth rates is positive at 0.51, and in the short run the correlation is actually negative (no number given), because investors bid up stock prices in fast-growing economies, because they expect the growth to continue. If the growth did continue, then they would make money, but often it doesn't, so they overpaid, so they get below-average (and often below-break-even) returns. Also, per-capita GDP growth is irrelevant; what correlates positively with equity returns is total GDP growth, including the change in population. So, on the contrary, this article provides a great deal of reason and even empirical evidence to believe that returns on US stocks should follow US economic growth rates.