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I think your premise is wrong - constant surveillance did jack-all to prevent this assassination and will continue to be little deterrent. Surveillance doesn't

I think your premise is wrong - constant surveillance did jack-all to prevent this assassination and will continue to be little deterrent. Surveillance doesn't often detect crimes/attacks before or even during their commission. It's primarily good for piecing events together after-the-fact. Until behavior-analysis and/or facial recognition become ready for primetime so that a hotel security's gets an alert saying, "possible organized covert activity by these people", such operations will only continue.

DanielBMarkham 17y ago
Really? I was under the impression that something like 25 agents had their covers blown by having their pictures in every major newspaper in the world. If the Israelis did it (which looks very likely), they sure are acting like it was a major disaster for their intelligence services. There have been calls for people to resign, editorials about what went wrong, etc. The problem as I read it is that this was conducted like a military operation -- probably very similar to the way operations are conducted in the Gaza strip. Only in a modern western city, you leave a lot more dirt behind you than you do in a poor slum somewhere. That's just what I've gathered from half a dozen articles or so, though. Perhaps you are right: perhaps these same guys can be effective in other operations. I doubt it, though.
- johngunderman 17y ago
  This Scheier article discusses how useless security cameras were/are in cases such as the recent assassination. Its a good read. http://www.schneier.com/essay-309.html http://www.schneier.com/essay-309.html
  - DanielBMarkham 17y ago
    Nyah. Not so good a read, unfortunately. Scheier is making a case about CCTV cameras being effective at preventing crime. If you're organizing a hit, it's not the same as knocking off a liquor store. Completely different scenario. Look at it this way: the CCTV cameras got enough of the faces of the agents to blow their cover. That means that facial recognition software, which is being used to scan passport photos, can easily pick up these guys if they try to travel anywhere to do it again. They lost all the resources that went into training 25 people; all for one hit. Sure the cameras aren't going to prevent the assassination, but that's not the danger to teams like this. discovery is. Look at it this way: countries will always have the ability to assassinate people in other countries. The question is whether or not you can insert a large team and act precisely, or if you have to use a car bomb or cruise missile. If the only thing you have to be precise is large specialized teams, and border agents all know the identities of your teams, you're out of business. Here's a better link (I think) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704479404575087621440351704.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_LeadStoryNA http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870447940457508...
- Semiapies 17y ago
  "Really?" Is the target dead? Were they stopped? Really. "I was under the impression that something like 25 agents had their covers blown by having their pictures in every major newspaper in the world." And their names are...? Considering that a number of analysts point out that the involved people appeared aware of, but not concerned by, the security cameras, it seems unlikely that any exposure was unexpected.
  - DanielBMarkham 17y ago
    Considering that a number of analysts point out that the involved people appeared aware of, but not concerned by, the security cameras, it seems unlikely that any exposure was unexpected. I think that's the key question. From what I've heard, the assumption is that they never expected the Dubai authorities to connect up all the videos. After all, the hit was staged to look like a natural death. Remember the goal isn't just to kill the guy. It's to kill him preferably by making it look like a natural death and definitely by not getting your face on the nightly news. Ideally nobody ever suspects anything so nobody goes back and pieces together the video.

DanielBMarkham 17y ago

Really? I was under the impression that something like 25 agents had their covers blown by having their pictures in every major newspaper in the world. If the Israelis did it (which looks very likely), they sure are acting like it was a major disaster for their intelligence services. There have been calls for people to resign, editorials about what went wrong, etc. The problem as I read it is that this was conducted like a military operation -- probably very similar to the way operations are conducted in the Gaza strip. Only in a modern western city, you leave a lot more dirt behind you than you do in a poor slum somewhere. That's just what I've gathered from half a dozen articles or so, though. Perhaps you are right: perhaps these same guys can be effective in other operations. I doubt it, though.

johngunderman 17y ago
This Scheier article discusses how useless security cameras were/are in cases such as the recent assassination. Its a good read. http://www.schneier.com/essay-309.html http://www.schneier.com/essay-309.html
- DanielBMarkham 17y ago
  Nyah. Not so good a read, unfortunately. Scheier is making a case about CCTV cameras being effective at preventing crime. If you're organizing a hit, it's not the same as knocking off a liquor store. Completely different scenario. Look at it this way: the CCTV cameras got enough of the faces of the agents to blow their cover. That means that facial recognition software, which is being used to scan passport photos, can easily pick up these guys if they try to travel anywhere to do it again. They lost all the resources that went into training 25 people; all for one hit. Sure the cameras aren't going to prevent the assassination, but that's not the danger to teams like this. discovery is. Look at it this way: countries will always have the ability to assassinate people in other countries. The question is whether or not you can insert a large team and act precisely, or if you have to use a car bomb or cruise missile. If the only thing you have to be precise is large specialized teams, and border agents all know the identities of your teams, you're out of business. Here's a better link (I think) http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704479404575087621440351704.html?mod=WSJ_LifeStyle_LeadStoryNA http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870447940457508...
Semiapies 17y ago
"Really?" Is the target dead? Were they stopped? Really. "I was under the impression that something like 25 agents had their covers blown by having their pictures in every major newspaper in the world." And their names are...? Considering that a number of analysts point out that the involved people appeared aware of, but not concerned by, the security cameras, it seems unlikely that any exposure was unexpected.
- DanielBMarkham 17y ago
  Considering that a number of analysts point out that the involved people appeared aware of, but not concerned by, the security cameras, it seems unlikely that any exposure was unexpected. I think that's the key question. From what I've heard, the assumption is that they never expected the Dubai authorities to connect up all the videos. After all, the hit was staged to look like a natural death. Remember the goal isn't just to kill the guy. It's to kill him preferably by making it look like a natural death and definitely by not getting your face on the nightly news. Ideally nobody ever suspects anything so nobody goes back and pieces together the video.