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Agreed. Now, I actually DO think they can deliver at the prices. But that doesn't mean solar prices dropped by 50%. Imagine this: you've got a business opport
by IkmoIkmo 11y ago
Agreed.
Now, I actually DO think they can deliver at the prices. But that doesn't mean solar prices dropped by 50%.
Imagine this: you've got a business opportunity for a 20 year contract. Currently it costs you $10 to run per year, but that will drop to $6 after a few years, and drop further to $1 per year in the last 10 years.
Where will it be priced? Well if I said say $5, then most would agree that makes sense. After all, your average cost will probably be something like $3 a year, so locking in the rate at $5 means you're making a profit. In fact, you'd expect others to outbid you until the price approaches the average cost of $3. But let's say it ended up priced at $5... well a journalist might say 'prices dropped by 50% this year'. When in reality, prices will drop over the next TWENTY years, and 20-year contracts reflect that expectation. Solar prices today are still $10 today, not $5.
Of course these are just made up numbers. Point is, even if companies can deliver at this pricing, it's mostly a reflection of expectations of future prices, not today's prices.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]