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Meh. Interesting juxtapositions but it doesn't really do it for me. There is a fine line between barking at the moon and a 5% chance of success? Really? I thin

Meh. Interesting juxtapositions but it doesn't really do it for me. There is a fine line between barking at the moon and a 5% chance of success? Really? I think a more apt comparison would be barking at the moon and selling all your possessions to buy as many lottery tickets as you can. OCD is compared to disciplined exercise? If Warren Buffet were born in medieval times, I doubt he would be considered crazy. He'd probably end up being seen and resourceful (having read his biography). Lastly, I resent the comparison of religion to insanity. Where I do agree is the notion that entrepreneurship requires some leap of faith that tends to go against the typical career route most professionals are ingrained with. However, I think most sane entrepreneurs (heh) usually have some background and expertise that will increase their chances of success in their venture. Taking measured risk is not that close to crazy. People do it when they switch jobs or careers.

boredguy8 17y ago
"Lastly, I resent the comparison of religion to insanity." For what it's worth, he's not comparing religion to insanity by saying they're the same thing. He's saying all three people (or the fourth with the atheist) can't each be right. Which is true.
- jackfoxy 17y ago
  "Which is true." Not so fast. There are propositons in arithmetic which are unprovable, Even getting the 3 (or 4) individuals to come up with a common set of boolean propositions is probably difficult, to say the least. Then coming up with a means to prove...
lotharbot 17y ago
"Taking measured risk is not that close to crazy." Depends on how carefully measured the risk is, what the possible payouts are, what the fallback plan is... and it depends on whose perspective is being taken. Where do you draw the line between "taking a good risk", "taking a bad risk", and "taking a crazy stupid risk"? What happens when you think a risk is good and everyone around you think it's stupid and you're crazy for taking it? I'd never buy a lottery ticket, but I have long-term disability insurance. Both have a negative expected value and a rare but high possible payout. The only thing that makes insurance "smart" and the lottery "crazy" is that with insurance the payoff happens exactly in the circumstance you need it to. Sometimes the line between smart and crazy is really, really thin.
- freshfunk 17y ago
  What I meant was the line I prefaced this statement with: "However, I think most sane entrepreneurs (heh) usually have some background and expertise that will increase their chances of success in their venture." When I think of "measured risk", I think of investing. Any kind, whether it's buying stocks or VCs investing money in your company. Both actions carry some risk.. much like becoming an entrepreneur carries risk. But in any of these situations you can do some sort of due diligence whether it's knowing the fundamentals of a stock and knowledge of a sector (when buying a stock), looking at metrics/product and understanding an industry (VCs) or having experience and knowledge of a certain sector and having the domain expertise to accomplish your goals (entrepreneurship).
donaq 17y ago
Well, he did specify a 5% chance of success...
ZeroGravitas 17y ago
You've missed his point. Why are you taking that risk? The motive or impulse for the "crazy" thing and the "normal" thing may be the same. That doesn't change the rules of physics that affect the moon but it does change how you look at the people doing "normal" things for (potentially) "crazy" reasons. And he's clearly saying that religion, exercise and entrepreneurship are normal.

boredguy8 17y ago

"Lastly, I resent the comparison of religion to insanity." For what it's worth, he's not comparing religion to insanity by saying they're the same thing. He's saying all three people (or the fourth with the atheist) can't each be right. Which is true.

jackfoxy 17y ago
"Which is true." Not so fast. There are propositons in arithmetic which are unprovable, Even getting the 3 (or 4) individuals to come up with a common set of boolean propositions is probably difficult, to say the least. Then coming up with a means to prove...

lotharbot 17y ago

"Taking measured risk is not that close to crazy." Depends on how carefully measured the risk is, what the possible payouts are, what the fallback plan is... and it depends on whose perspective is being taken. Where do you draw the line between "taking a good risk", "taking a bad risk", and "taking a crazy stupid risk"? What happens when you think a risk is good and everyone around you think it's stupid and you're crazy for taking it? I'd never buy a lottery ticket, but I have long-term disability insurance. Both have a negative expected value and a rare but high possible payout. The only thing that makes insurance "smart" and the lottery "crazy" is that with insurance the payoff happens exactly in the circumstance you need it to. Sometimes the line between smart and crazy is really, really thin.

freshfunk 17y ago
What I meant was the line I prefaced this statement with: "However, I think most sane entrepreneurs (heh) usually have some background and expertise that will increase their chances of success in their venture." When I think of "measured risk", I think of investing. Any kind, whether it's buying stocks or VCs investing money in your company. Both actions carry some risk.. much like becoming an entrepreneur carries risk. But in any of these situations you can do some sort of due diligence whether it's knowing the fundamentals of a stock and knowledge of a sector (when buying a stock), looking at metrics/product and understanding an industry (VCs) or having experience and knowledge of a certain sector and having the domain expertise to accomplish your goals (entrepreneurship).

donaq 17y ago

Well, he did specify a 5% chance of success...

ZeroGravitas 17y ago

You've missed his point. Why are you taking that risk? The motive or impulse for the "crazy" thing and the "normal" thing may be the same. That doesn't change the rules of physics that affect the moon but it does change how you look at the people doing "normal" things for (potentially) "crazy" reasons. And he's clearly saying that religion, exercise and entrepreneurship are normal.