4 ms·
Interesting, what about prior probability and Occam's razor? The 'process' section mentions "less consistency implies a lower likelihood" but makes no mention o
by Lxr 10y ago
Interesting, what about prior probability and Occam's razor? The 'process' section mentions "less consistency implies a lower likelihood" but makes no mention of preferring simpler hypotheses which I find surprising. Edit: 'Bayesian analysis' is briefly mentioned further down the page.
- woodman 10y agoACH is just a very high level framework for shaking bias, the methods are implementation details. This is for humans, so you have to keep that in mind when you are choosing the analytic method - the most difficult that I'd press for is first order logic. Having a machine come along behind the human analysts and perform the more difficult forms of analysis is basically what Deep Green [0] was about. A more manual version of that would be the Lockwood Analytical Method for Prediction [1]. The funny thing about Deep Green was that developers had to address the fact that military commanders didn't like having a machine perform the planning process, so they had the algorithm include sub optimal options in the selection menu - allowing the human operator to feel good about choosing the obviously correct solution. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Green https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Green [1] http://lamp-method.org/ http://lamp-method.org/