6 ms·

I lost about $100k in 2009 buying into the ZH-gloom and doom mentality, unfortunately. Everything they said made sense, but it just wasn't how the world works.

nugget 11y ago
In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.
- jonstokes 11y ago
  Yep. At the time, I was reminded of a quote from The Iliad, which I can't find anymore. It was something to the effect of, when the gods come down to earth to meddle in the affairs of mortals, the only ones who win are the ones whose side they take.
  - hammock 11y ago
    We everlasting gods . . . Ah what chilling blows we suffer—thanks to our own conflicting wills— whenever we show these mortal men some kindness.
- pfarnsworth 11y ago
  Agreed. I only wish I figured this out $75k or even $50k sooner :)
  - beamatronic 11y ago
    I feel a little bit better now.
- JumpCrisscross 11y ago
  > In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention The novel part was the purchase of government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and GSE debt securities. The Fed's balance-sheet expansion, interest-rate regime and their effects on the market have precedent [1]. [1] http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_ex...
supercanuck 11y ago
I learned a very valuable lesson from reading Housing Bubble blogs and what not during the 2008 Financial Crisis. I prided myself on being one of those people who saw it before it was happening, and had purchased double shorted bank ETF's. I thought I was a genius by "getting news first" and acting on it, and seeing the money I was "making". But then the Government stepped in and said they would not let the banks fail. My position evaporated into thin air.
- Gibbon1 11y ago
  You learned half the lesson. The other half is the over-class will force the government to do whatever is needed to keep them from going bust. My dad claimed that the biggest mistake he made financially was when Chrysler was going bankrupt in in the early eighties. He knew that it was politically impossible for the government to let Chrysler fail. However my dad didn't follow through and sock the 100k he had into Chrysler stock. I did the same thing. I knew in January 2009 that the slide in financial stocks was over. Should have put half into Goldman Sacks half into JP Morgan. The Fed wasn't going to let Goldman Sacks and JP Morgan fail.
  - caf 11y ago
    "Not letting them fail" does not necessarily mean that investors in those institutions won't be taking a bath.
    - CamperBob2 11y ago
      Exactly. After learning from his mistake with Chrysler, Gibbon1's dad might have bought GM's bonds, and gotten hosed yet again. Oops.
      - Gibbon1 11y ago
        Chrysler was 1979, GM was 2008 totally different political economic climate. In 1979 ordinary businesses and unions had a huge amount of political clout. And Chrysler wasn't an ordinary business. By 2008 only Wall Street investment banks had that clout. That's because under neo-liberalism the profits from the real economy are funneled through the investment house. Letting them go under means the spigot gets turned off.
0x445424 11y ago
Yeah, and had you acted on the type of information ZH pushes in 2007 you'd probably saved as much or more. In fact, I made $225K in 2006 on real estate arbitrage buying into ZH type gloom. A lot of what ZH publishes still does make sense; it's just that the financial/ponzi schemes the Fed has employed since 2009 haven't busted yet. I still don't get the pass that's given to the mainstream financial "experts" who all missed 2008. Since 2006 Gold has out performed the DOW by ~30%, even with the the financial schemes and pushing the national debt to 19 trillion.

nugget 11y ago

In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention that lit the fuse under the markets and led us here. I remember reaching a point myself where I realized that policy was driving the markets more than any other factor and quit actively trading completely. You can be right but if the Feds take the other side of your trade you will be bragging about it to your fellow corpses in the graveyard.

jonstokes 11y ago
Yep. At the time, I was reminded of a quote from The Iliad, which I can't find anymore. It was something to the effect of, when the gods come down to earth to meddle in the affairs of mortals, the only ones who win are the ones whose side they take.
- hammock 11y ago
  We everlasting gods . . . Ah what chilling blows we suffer—thanks to our own conflicting wills— whenever we show these mortal men some kindness.
pfarnsworth 11y ago
Agreed. I only wish I figured this out $75k or even $50k sooner :)
- beamatronic 11y ago
  I feel a little bit better now.
JumpCrisscross 11y ago
> In a 2009 bear's defense it was unprecedented Government intervention The novel part was the purchase of government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and GSE debt securities. The Fed's balance-sheet expansion, interest-rate regime and their effects on the market have precedent [1]. [1] http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf http://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_ex...

supercanuck 11y ago

I learned a very valuable lesson from reading Housing Bubble blogs and what not during the 2008 Financial Crisis. I prided myself on being one of those people who saw it before it was happening, and had purchased double shorted bank ETF's. I thought I was a genius by "getting news first" and acting on it, and seeing the money I was "making". But then the Government stepped in and said they would not let the banks fail. My position evaporated into thin air.

Gibbon1 11y ago
You learned half the lesson. The other half is the over-class will force the government to do whatever is needed to keep them from going bust. My dad claimed that the biggest mistake he made financially was when Chrysler was going bankrupt in in the early eighties. He knew that it was politically impossible for the government to let Chrysler fail. However my dad didn't follow through and sock the 100k he had into Chrysler stock. I did the same thing. I knew in January 2009 that the slide in financial stocks was over. Should have put half into Goldman Sacks half into JP Morgan. The Fed wasn't going to let Goldman Sacks and JP Morgan fail.
- caf 11y ago
  "Not letting them fail" does not necessarily mean that investors in those institutions won't be taking a bath.
  - CamperBob2 11y ago
    Exactly. After learning from his mistake with Chrysler, Gibbon1's dad might have bought GM's bonds, and gotten hosed yet again. Oops.
    - Gibbon1 11y ago
      Chrysler was 1979, GM was 2008 totally different political economic climate. In 1979 ordinary businesses and unions had a huge amount of political clout. And Chrysler wasn't an ordinary business. By 2008 only Wall Street investment banks had that clout. That's because under neo-liberalism the profits from the real economy are funneled through the investment house. Letting them go under means the spigot gets turned off.

0x445424 11y ago

Yeah, and had you acted on the type of information ZH pushes in 2007 you'd probably saved as much or more. In fact, I made $225K in 2006 on real estate arbitrage buying into ZH type gloom. A lot of what ZH publishes still does make sense; it's just that the financial/ponzi schemes the Fed has employed since 2009 haven't busted yet. I still don't get the pass that's given to the mainstream financial "experts" who all missed 2008. Since 2006 Gold has out performed the DOW by ~30%, even with the the financial schemes and pushing the national debt to 19 trillion.