4 ms·
Metaculus prediction pool has it at 30% likely to be verified by end of summer : http://www.metaculus.com/questions/41/ http://www.metaculus.com/questions/41/
by dzdt 11y ago
Metaculus prediction pool has it at 30% likely to be verified by end of summer : http://www.metaculus.com/questions/41/ http://www.metaculus.com/questions/41/
- jessriedel 11y agoI like the general philosophy behind Metaculus (that we should all be more public and accountable with our speculation) but I don't think the numbers are currently reliable because posting is open to anyone and there's no money on the line.