The issue isn't that the budget is wrong (though it doesn't typically include marketing), it's that box office revenue isn't 100% the distributors. Around 60% g

The issue isn't that the budget is wrong (though it doesn't typically include marketing), it's that box office revenue isn't 100% the distributors. Around 60% goes to the distributor for US box office and as low 25-40% for foreign receipts. So 3X is probably right for a heavily marketed movie, but 2X might cover a less heavily marketed movie. Plus DVD rights, streaming, and broadcast rights do bring in some extra money too.