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I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or somethi

I confidently predict, in my lifetime, - Nearly all cars will be electric. - Nearly all cars will be self driving. - Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. - Exceptions to the above will be owned by the same sort of people who currently own Ford model Ts. They will be lovingly maintained, proudly exhibited, and illegal to drive on the public highway.

aninhumer 11y ago
>- Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. I'm not entirely convinced this will happen. Certainly owning a car will be a luxury, but it will be an affordable one (since we can clearly already afford it). I think there are enough advantages to car ownership, like instant availability, and personalised space, that mean many people will still choose to own a car instead of taking taxis.
- Grishnakh 11y ago
  It probably will depend a lot on where they live. The less dense their location, the more popular personally-owned cars will remain. Uber is great and all, but if you have to wait 15 minutes for an Uber ride to arrive, that's not very appealing compared to just hopping in your car and going. But if you live in a much more dense area and an Uber ride will arrive within a couple of minutes, that's a lot more doable, and saves you from the trouble and expense of maintenance, parking, etc.
djrogers 11y ago
>illegal to drive on the public highway. Model T's are not illegal to drive today... And you've got a lot more public sentiment to overcome and a LOT more cars to replace than you think if you believe all of this will happen in the next 50 years.
- JulianMorrison 11y ago
  As with film cameras, internal combustion cars have a long logistical tail that is highly dependent on the continued existence of the current volume of use. So when electric cars start squeezing them out, gas stations and repair garages will start to disappear, prices will go up for fuel and parts. Poor people with junker gasoline cars they really don't want to replace will be driving longer to find fuel and sooner or later will be driven to either convert their car or sell it for scrap. The only demographic that will be able to afford to run them will be moneyed enthusiasts. Once they effectively disappear from the roads (and the voting booth) the government will ban them. I expect that taxis and trucks will be mandated self-driving before cars will, because the safety upside will be obvious and huge, and the government is used to meddling in those industries. Seeing the results of that, there will be a sustained public pressure to mandate it for cars, with each accident splashed on the news and reporters saying "if only". As above, they'll first become rare and then banned.
mywittyname 11y ago
> illegal to drive on the public highway. Highly unlikely in the US. States will gladly take your money in the form of registration and consumption taxes associated with driving old cars. They've already paid for all the infrastructure, so they might as well maximize their returns. Though, some European nations might. Not the UK or Germany, but Denmark/Belgium could.

aninhumer 11y ago

>- Nearly all cars will be Uber, or something like it. I'm not entirely convinced this will happen. Certainly owning a car will be a luxury, but it will be an affordable one (since we can clearly already afford it). I think there are enough advantages to car ownership, like instant availability, and personalised space, that mean many people will still choose to own a car instead of taking taxis.

Grishnakh 11y ago
It probably will depend a lot on where they live. The less dense their location, the more popular personally-owned cars will remain. Uber is great and all, but if you have to wait 15 minutes for an Uber ride to arrive, that's not very appealing compared to just hopping in your car and going. But if you live in a much more dense area and an Uber ride will arrive within a couple of minutes, that's a lot more doable, and saves you from the trouble and expense of maintenance, parking, etc.

djrogers 11y ago

>illegal to drive on the public highway. Model T's are not illegal to drive today... And you've got a lot more public sentiment to overcome and a LOT more cars to replace than you think if you believe all of this will happen in the next 50 years.

JulianMorrison 11y ago
As with film cameras, internal combustion cars have a long logistical tail that is highly dependent on the continued existence of the current volume of use. So when electric cars start squeezing them out, gas stations and repair garages will start to disappear, prices will go up for fuel and parts. Poor people with junker gasoline cars they really don't want to replace will be driving longer to find fuel and sooner or later will be driven to either convert their car or sell it for scrap. The only demographic that will be able to afford to run them will be moneyed enthusiasts. Once they effectively disappear from the roads (and the voting booth) the government will ban them. I expect that taxis and trucks will be mandated self-driving before cars will, because the safety upside will be obvious and huge, and the government is used to meddling in those industries. Seeing the results of that, there will be a sustained public pressure to mandate it for cars, with each accident splashed on the news and reporters saying "if only". As above, they'll first become rare and then banned.

mywittyname 11y ago

> illegal to drive on the public highway. Highly unlikely in the US. States will gladly take your money in the form of registration and consumption taxes associated with driving old cars. They've already paid for all the infrastructure, so they might as well maximize their returns. Though, some European nations might. Not the UK or Germany, but Denmark/Belgium could.