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This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles

by PinguTS 10y ago

This article has lots of false assumptions. To phrase it positively, the article ignores a lot of facts. EVs are simpler devices than gasoline-powered vehicles. They have a smaller number of parts, making them easier to assemble. At similar scale to gas vehicles, electric vehicles should indeed be lower cost to built. In addition, EVs have many fewer moving parts (in the engine and drivetrain in particular) than internal combustion vehicles. That further means lower construction cost for the most complex and costly part of a vehicle, and far lower maintenance cost. While it is true, the engine and drive train has fewer parts, when I reduce it to motor and battery. But in fact every EV has a gear, including the Tesla. Yes, this gear is much simpler, but it is there and even runs with oil that has to be replaced every 100.000 miles like in every other car. The battery is as complex as an engine itself. Because you need to measure lots of sensors values and to control that it will not explode and not wear down to fast. Every battery, including the one in the Tesla, has a dedicated heating and cooling system just for the battery within the battery. Then also lots of parts in car are the very same like brakes, steering, air condition, windows, and so. Remember that a current car is about 30% software and will be more in future. But there is only 1 engine control unit. The most of the parts are other things to control safety or personal comfort. Electric vehicles, today, have lower total costs per mile than equivalent gasoline-powered vehicles, due to lower energy costs of electricity and the lower maintenance costs. That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. Like the brakes have to be regularly checked. It neglects the fact, that a battery will wear out sometimes between 3 to 6 years and has to be replaced, which is a huge cost related issue. The guarantee Tesla has, does not help, because you will pay for that guarantee otherwise.

woodpanel 10y ago
This article has lots of false assumptions. I agree. In fact, this article is so preconcieved reading it's last sentence felt like: 'scrolling, scrolling to continue reading after the ads... aaaand... where is the reasoning-part and the criterion-part of this piece?' Considering the article's lack of substance and the subsequent unquestioning cheering here on HN, this article delivers less enlightenment on the future of EV than it is a statement about the bias on HN towards EV. And probably about the bias in the valley as well.
dragontamer 10y ago
> That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. Like the brakes have to be regularly checked. It neglects the fact, that a battery will wear out sometimes between 3 to 6 years and has to be replaced, which is a huge cost related issue. The guarantee Tesla has, does not help, because you will pay for that guarantee otherwise. It seems like the battery management of Tesla is pretty good. I'd imagine 10-year to 15-year replacement of battery packs... which is still far more expensive and costly than a transmission rework (ie: a 150k to 200k Camry).
danans 10y ago
One thing often overlooked is that even if a battery pack has reached the end of it's useful life for a car (i.e. 50% of it's original storage capacity), it still potentially has utility for stationary storage purposes. It seems like Daimler is already working on reusing car batteries in this way: http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/daimler-is-reusing-electric-vehicle-batteries-to-store-renewable-energy/ http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/daimler-is-reusing-el... ... and I read once that Elon Musk talked about it, though I can't find a link.
agumonkey 10y ago
It reminds me of SSDs, they're very sophisticated inside, but no matter how complex, they're still going to replace mechanical HDDs.
Avshalom 10y ago
Quite. In my life time of cars the engine and drive train has always required the least amount of maintenance out of anything in a car; meanwhile I don't think I've owned a car that didn't have a window actuator go out.
xorcist 10y ago
For an electric motorbike, I found that maintenance was much, much lower than a gasoline one. Until you have to change the battery, of course.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
perbu 10y ago
I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical Model S is projected to retain about 92 percent of its battery capacity and range. So what "fact" you are relying on stating the battery will have to be replaced between 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. Other, simpler EVs, lacking the rather sophisticated battery management system of the Model S might degrade quicker - especially in warmer climates, but nowhere near as fast as you state. Other than that, you're right in that most EVs are almost as complex as a modern ICE. They need to be checked regularly and will need repairs.
- forgetsusername 10y ago
  >There is a Dutch study which concludes the following You should probably link to the study. >3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. 3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I guess we'll see as the current Teslas age.
  - impy 10y ago
    Took me a little bit of searching to actually find the source, and to call it a study is a bit an overstatement, however here are some links: https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/ https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat... [A blogpost about the study] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKP... [The study/survey] http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm [Interactive graph] And as bonus a link to the Tesla Roadster battery study: http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Battery-Study.pdf http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Batte...
ZeroGravitas 10y ago
> That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. It probably doesn't. Already today operators of taxi and bus fleets are doing the sums on full electric vehicles and deciding to spend more up front to save over the long term. Generally lower fuel and maintenance costs are cited as why they can afford to spend more on the vehicle. Possibly these multi-million dollar deals are signed without sufficient due-diligince by people who run vehicle fleets as a full-time job, but it seem more likely they know what they're doing.
cowmix 10y ago
It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.
- mikeyouse 10y ago
  > When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil. Or your transmission fluid, or your spark plugs, or your muffler / exhaust pipe, or your catalytic converters, or your oxygen sensors, or about 100 other parts unique to ICE engines.. Many of which I've recently repaired on my 160k-mile car.
  - NeutronBoy 10y ago
    Many of those items aren't consumables, and you replace from wear and tear. Why wouldn't you think a temperature sensor in your Tesla battery will need to be replaced, similar to your O2 sensor in your ICE vehicle?
- umsm 10y ago
  Tesla has a service schedule it suggests: https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans You will change your battery oil.
  - taneq 10y ago
    What about headlight fluid? I don't see a schedule for that.

by PinguTS 10y ago

woodpanel 10y ago

This article has lots of false assumptions. I agree. In fact, this article is so preconcieved reading it's last sentence felt like: 'scrolling, scrolling to continue reading after the ads... aaaand... where is the reasoning-part and the criterion-part of this piece?' Considering the article's lack of substance and the subsequent unquestioning cheering here on HN, this article delivers less enlightenment on the future of EV than it is a statement about the bias on HN towards EV. And probably about the bias in the valley as well.

dragontamer 10y ago

> That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. Like the brakes have to be regularly checked. It neglects the fact, that a battery will wear out sometimes between 3 to 6 years and has to be replaced, which is a huge cost related issue. The guarantee Tesla has, does not help, because you will pay for that guarantee otherwise. It seems like the battery management of Tesla is pretty good. I'd imagine 10-year to 15-year replacement of battery packs... which is still far more expensive and costly than a transmission rework (ie: a 150k to 200k Camry).

danans 10y ago

One thing often overlooked is that even if a battery pack has reached the end of it's useful life for a car (i.e. 50% of it's original storage capacity), it still potentially has utility for stationary storage purposes. It seems like Daimler is already working on reusing car batteries in this way: http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/daimler-is-reusing-electric-vehicle-batteries-to-store-renewable-energy/ http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/11/daimler-is-reusing-el... ... and I read once that Elon Musk talked about it, though I can't find a link.

agumonkey 10y ago

It reminds me of SSDs, they're very sophisticated inside, but no matter how complex, they're still going to replace mechanical HDDs.

Avshalom 10y ago

Quite. In my life time of cars the engine and drive train has always required the least amount of maintenance out of anything in a car; meanwhile I don't think I've owned a car that didn't have a window actuator go out.

xorcist 10y ago

For an electric motorbike, I found that maintenance was much, much lower than a gasoline one. Until you have to change the battery, of course.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

perbu 10y ago

I think you're overestimating the battery capacity loss. There is a Dutch study which concludes the following: Based on 84 data points from the 85-kWh version of the Model S and six from 60-kWh cars, the study concludes that the Model S will retain about 94 percent of its capacity after 50,000 miles, with losses thereafter shrinking to about 1 percent per 30,000 miles. That means that after 100,000 miles, the typical Model S is projected to retain about 92 percent of its battery capacity and range. So what "fact" you are relying on stating the battery will have to be replaced between 3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. Other, simpler EVs, lacking the rather sophisticated battery management system of the Model S might degrade quicker - especially in warmer climates, but nowhere near as fast as you state. Other than that, you're right in that most EVs are almost as complex as a modern ICE. They need to be checked regularly and will need repairs.

forgetsusername 10y ago
>There is a Dutch study which concludes the following You should probably link to the study. >3 and 6 years is probably not very factual. 3 years might be early, but I have a hard time believing that Tesla has hit on some magic as far as batteries are concerned. The drain on anything I have at home is far more than what you state; my phone battery certainly isn't much good after 6 years.. But I have no idea. I guess we'll see as the current Teslas age.
- impy 10y ago
  Took me a little bit of searching to actually find the source, and to call it a study is a bit an overstatement, however here are some links: https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-battery-degradation-data/ https://steinbuch.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/tesla-model-s-bat... [A blogpost about the study] https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPsg https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKP... [The study/survey] http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm http://www.daglievemensen.nl/tesla/maxrange.htm [Interactive graph] And as bonus a link to the Tesla Roadster battery study: http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Battery-Study.pdf http://www.groen7.nl/images/wp2013/divers/PIA-Roadster-Batte...

ZeroGravitas 10y ago

> That neglects the fact, that most of the maintenance costs are not engine related. It probably doesn't. Already today operators of taxi and bus fleets are doing the sums on full electric vehicles and deciding to spend more up front to save over the long term. Generally lower fuel and maintenance costs are cited as why they can afford to spend more on the vehicle. Possibly these multi-million dollar deals are signed without sufficient due-diligince by people who run vehicle fleets as a full-time job, but it seem more likely they know what they're doing.

cowmix 10y ago

It is funny you should bring up brakes. On most hybrids and plugins brakes seem to last forever because regenerative braking is what is mostly used over using brake pads. My Volt has 54K miles yet my brake pads look practically new. Also, my Volt has only had its oil replaced once (because of how often the engine runs.) When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil.

mikeyouse 10y ago
> When I get my Tesla 3, I'll obviously never change my oil. Or your transmission fluid, or your spark plugs, or your muffler / exhaust pipe, or your catalytic converters, or your oxygen sensors, or about 100 other parts unique to ICE engines.. Many of which I've recently repaired on my 160k-mile car.
- NeutronBoy 10y ago
  Many of those items aren't consumables, and you replace from wear and tear. Why wouldn't you think a temperature sensor in your Tesla battery will need to be replaced, similar to your O2 sensor in your ICE vehicle?
umsm 10y ago
Tesla has a service schedule it suggests: https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans https://www.teslamotors.com/support/service-plans You will change your battery oil.
- taneq 10y ago
  What about headlight fluid? I don't see a schedule for that.