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> The current step change in our AI capabilities could throw a spanner in all attempts at making any reliable predictions. On the other hand, vastly improved A
by vog 11y ago
> The current step change in our AI capabilities could throw a spanner in all attempts at making any reliable predictions.
On the other hand, vastly improved AI capabilities could mean that future prediction systems are more reliable.
At some point in the future, all further predictions may become roughly accurate. Maybe these AI sytems are clever enough in make only predictions which are self-fulfilling prophecies. In other words, that they are able to calculate their own influence to the world into their predictions, which is especially important for economic predictions made by influential institutes.
- fauigerzigerk 11y agoThat's a nice thought experiment but I don't think we have the slightest indication that such a thing is even theoretically possible. Our current AI systems are pretty good at identifying patterns of past behavior. But the extent to which past behavior contains information about future behavior may be limited. Information that isn't there cannot be found irrespective of how clever any predictor may be.