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Given SpaceX's inability to estimate time frames (the F9 Heavy is, what, four years late?), I would be shocked if this happened at all, let alone before 2030.
by gozur88 11y ago
Given SpaceX's inability to estimate time frames (the F9 Heavy is, what, four years late?), I would be shocked if this happened at all, let alone before 2030.
- phpnode 11y agoFalcon Heavy is late, but making Falcon Heavy economical means making all of the 3 F9 first stages it uses reusable. They haven't cracked that yet, they've got 2 good landings and a lot of data, but it's far from certain whether e.g. the landing attempt next week will be successful. Most of their customers do not need the extra payload / push of Falcon Heavy and so they're concentrating on making F9 itself work first. This is reasonable I think.
- gozur88 11y agoOh, I understand the reasons for the delay, and they're good reasons. I was just pointing out they tend to miss their time estimates by a wide margin.
- JshWright 11y agoI'm right there with you on SpaceX and timelines (my recent post history here includes trying to convince folks that just because they landed a stage doesn't mean cheap and easy rocket reuse is right around the corner). In this case however, my gut feeling is that they're a lot deeper into the development cycle of this project and they feel pretty confident about the 2018 timeframe.
- gozur88 11y agoI hope you're right. We'll see.