3 ms·

Not sure about "doomed", but you can't spend money you don't have forever, you are taking the money from the future. Also, aging demographics is a big issue, be

by jazzyk 10y ago

Not sure about "doomed", but you can't spend money you don't have forever, you are taking the money from the future. Also, aging demographics is a big issue, because there will be fewer and fewer people to pay for retirees. There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. There will be painful decisions to make, not just for Japan, but for other indebted countries (most of the developed world, unfortunately).

panarky 10y ago
> you can't spend money you don't have forever Nothing lasts forever, so let's talk about your model of how the economy works within your decision horizon. The BoJ has been printing yen for decades, and the counter-intuitive result is that yen is strong and 30-year interest rates are less than one half of one percent. Your model predicts imminent catastrophe, yet there is zero evidence that this cannot continue for the foreseeable future. > you are taking the money from the future No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. And those lending to Japan apparently think there is an extraordinarily low risk of default over the next 30 years. > There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. And yet the yen is strong and interest rates are low. When the facts on the ground contradict your mental model of how the world works, maybe it's time to change your model.
- jazzyk 10y ago
  This is going off-topic, so I will try to keep it brief: My "model" is based on common sense. You can't create prosperity through financial engineering - but you can hide worsening prosperity for years (if you are a central bank). I don't know how long it will take to blow up, but blow up it will.
  - panarky 10y ago
    When actual results differ from what our intuition tells us, we call it "counter-intuitive". When this happens, it could mean that our intuition is right and reality will eventually conform to how we think things should work. But more often, it means that there is more going on than we understand, so we should calibrate our thinking to correspond with what is actually happening. You're free to wait for the territory to change to match your map. As for myself, I find it's more profitable to update my map to match the territory.
- fineline 10y ago
  > No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. Not according to the Bank of England. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarte...

by jazzyk 10y ago

panarky 10y ago

> you can't spend money you don't have forever Nothing lasts forever, so let's talk about your model of how the economy works within your decision horizon. The BoJ has been printing yen for decades, and the counter-intuitive result is that yen is strong and 30-year interest rates are less than one half of one percent. Your model predicts imminent catastrophe, yet there is zero evidence that this cannot continue for the foreseeable future. > you are taking the money from the future No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. And those lending to Japan apparently think there is an extraordinarily low risk of default over the next 30 years. > There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. And yet the yen is strong and interest rates are low. When the facts on the ground contradict your mental model of how the world works, maybe it's time to change your model.

jazzyk 10y ago
This is going off-topic, so I will try to keep it brief: My "model" is based on common sense. You can't create prosperity through financial engineering - but you can hide worsening prosperity for years (if you are a central bank). I don't know how long it will take to blow up, but blow up it will.
- panarky 10y ago
  When actual results differ from what our intuition tells us, we call it "counter-intuitive". When this happens, it could mean that our intuition is right and reality will eventually conform to how we think things should work. But more often, it means that there is more going on than we understand, so we should calibrate our thinking to correspond with what is actually happening. You're free to wait for the territory to change to match your map. As for myself, I find it's more profitable to update my map to match the territory.
fineline 10y ago
> No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. Not according to the Bank of England. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q102.pdf http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarte...