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>You can't put a price on peace of mind The peace of mind may not last too long. The Japanese public debt exceeded one quadrillion yen (US$10.46 trillion) in

by jazzyk 10y ago

>You can't put a price on peace of mind The peace of mind may not last too long. The Japanese public debt exceeded one quadrillion yen (US$10.46 trillion) in 2013, more than twice the annual gross domestic product of Japan [1]. >general atmosphere of civility and willingness to come together for a common cause. Yes, the US could use a bit more civility. But in Japan, the "willingness to come together" comes at a price - of culturally suppressed individual expression. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_public_debt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_public_debt

nihonde 10y ago
I have this thought that I want to express to you but I fear that it will prompt disagreement or come across as confrontational or dismissive when I really mean it in the spirit of compassion. I will do my best: The words you wrote reflect a state of mind that seeks a negative outcome. I'm sure you don't intend it, but you adopt a half-empty perspective. It's the same tone that the mainstream news media uses when it turns its attention to Japan. I wish I could convey to you how much that mindset is a symptom of a sickness in your environment. I don't mean to sound condescending, but it was an important revelation for me to learn that my tendency to express unhelpful skepticism and pessimism is, in fact, not inherent to myself but rather is a feature of the condition around me. I'm sorry if it is too abstract or rude, but I encourage you to seek a more hopeful outlook. We could trade evidence of ruination of east and west all day (night for me), but what would we have accomplished? I'd prefer if we (perhaps naively) focus on those things each side is doing well. That can really move the world forward!
- jazzyk 10y ago
  I've been to Japan a few times and I like many aspects of life there (I love Japanese art/sense of aesthetics, for example). I certainly wish the best to all humans, the Japanese people included. But we are discussing economics, and "hope" does not work in economics. Numbers do, and they do not add up. Japanese culture does not like confrontation and therefore it tends to hide/gloss over problems, be they economic (the last 20 years of not making bold decisions to get out of the stagnation) or managerial (see the Fukushima disaster initial cover up). I am just providing a reality-based counterpoint to your over-romanticized, in my opinion, view on Japan. Every country/culture has their pluses/minuses.
  - panarky 10y ago
    > "hope" does not work in economics. Numbers do, and they do not add up. Economics is not about math, precise and inevitable. Economics is about people and their social interactions. Economists try to model social interactions with numbers, but don't mistake the map for the territory. What does it mean in human terms that Japan has high debt? Is your argument that Japan will inevitably default? Sophisticated traders are willing to lend more money for 30 years at less than half a percent interest [1], so smart people must judge default risk to be very low. Is your argument that somehow Japan is doomed because of this debt? Even if they default, what does that really mean on a human level? Would millions starve? Would society collapse? Maybe Japan's history, customs, language and social cohesion are worth more than you think. And, just for the record, Western stereotypes of Japan as a collectivist society are no longer true [2]. [1] http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bond... [2] http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/japan-is-not-collectivist-society.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/japan-is-not-coll...
    - jazzyk 10y ago
      Not sure about "doomed", but you can't spend money you don't have forever, you are taking the money from the future. Also, aging demographics is a big issue, because there will be fewer and fewer people to pay for retirees. There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. There will be painful decisions to make, not just for Japan, but for other indebted countries (most of the developed world, unfortunately).
      - panarky 10y ago
        > you can't spend money you don't have forever Nothing lasts forever, so let's talk about your model of how the economy works within your decision horizon. The BoJ has been printing yen for decades, and the counter-intuitive result is that yen is strong and 30-year interest rates are less than one half of one percent. Your model predicts imminent catastrophe, yet there is zero evidence that this cannot continue for the foreseeable future. > you are taking the money from the future No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. And those lending to Japan apparently think there is an extraordinarily low risk of default over the next 30 years. > There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. And yet the yen is strong and interest rates are low. When the facts on the ground contradict your mental model of how the world works, maybe it's time to change your model.

by jazzyk 10y ago

nihonde 10y ago

I have this thought that I want to express to you but I fear that it will prompt disagreement or come across as confrontational or dismissive when I really mean it in the spirit of compassion. I will do my best: The words you wrote reflect a state of mind that seeks a negative outcome. I'm sure you don't intend it, but you adopt a half-empty perspective. It's the same tone that the mainstream news media uses when it turns its attention to Japan. I wish I could convey to you how much that mindset is a symptom of a sickness in your environment. I don't mean to sound condescending, but it was an important revelation for me to learn that my tendency to express unhelpful skepticism and pessimism is, in fact, not inherent to myself but rather is a feature of the condition around me. I'm sorry if it is too abstract or rude, but I encourage you to seek a more hopeful outlook. We could trade evidence of ruination of east and west all day (night for me), but what would we have accomplished? I'd prefer if we (perhaps naively) focus on those things each side is doing well. That can really move the world forward!

jazzyk 10y ago
I've been to Japan a few times and I like many aspects of life there (I love Japanese art/sense of aesthetics, for example). I certainly wish the best to all humans, the Japanese people included. But we are discussing economics, and "hope" does not work in economics. Numbers do, and they do not add up. Japanese culture does not like confrontation and therefore it tends to hide/gloss over problems, be they economic (the last 20 years of not making bold decisions to get out of the stagnation) or managerial (see the Fukushima disaster initial cover up). I am just providing a reality-based counterpoint to your over-romanticized, in my opinion, view on Japan. Every country/culture has their pluses/minuses.
- panarky 10y ago
  > "hope" does not work in economics. Numbers do, and they do not add up. Economics is not about math, precise and inevitable. Economics is about people and their social interactions. Economists try to model social interactions with numbers, but don't mistake the map for the territory. What does it mean in human terms that Japan has high debt? Is your argument that Japan will inevitably default? Sophisticated traders are willing to lend more money for 30 years at less than half a percent interest [1], so smart people must judge default risk to be very low. Is your argument that somehow Japan is doomed because of this debt? Even if they default, what does that really mean on a human level? Would millions starve? Would society collapse? Maybe Japan's history, customs, language and social cohesion are worth more than you think. And, just for the record, Western stereotypes of Japan as a collectivist society are no longer true [2]. [1] http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/japan http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bond... [2] http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/japan-is-not-collectivist-society.html http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2015/03/japan-is-not-coll...
  - jazzyk 10y ago
    Not sure about "doomed", but you can't spend money you don't have forever, you are taking the money from the future. Also, aging demographics is a big issue, because there will be fewer and fewer people to pay for retirees. There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. There will be painful decisions to make, not just for Japan, but for other indebted countries (most of the developed world, unfortunately).
    - panarky 10y ago
      > you can't spend money you don't have forever Nothing lasts forever, so let's talk about your model of how the economy works within your decision horizon. The BoJ has been printing yen for decades, and the counter-intuitive result is that yen is strong and 30-year interest rates are less than one half of one percent. Your model predicts imminent catastrophe, yet there is zero evidence that this cannot continue for the foreseeable future. > you are taking the money from the future No, we are borrowing from each other in the present. And those lending to Japan apparently think there is an extraordinarily low risk of default over the next 30 years. > There are well-known hedge funds (check out Kyle Bass) betting against Japan. And yet the yen is strong and interest rates are low. When the facts on the ground contradict your mental model of how the world works, maybe it's time to change your model.