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a short lesson in statistics: 20 teams in the premier league, one wins; no team EVER should be 5000-1 to win it. it was a preposterously stupid betting line.
by lintiness 11y ago
a short lesson in statistics: 20 teams in the premier league, one wins; no team EVER should be 5000-1 to win it. it was a preposterously stupid betting line.
- celticninja 11y agoThose figures don't mean every team is 20/1. Your comment is less a lesson in statistics and more a lesson in how people confuse probability and statistics.
- lintiness 11y agoLOL 5000 to 1 means the WORST team in the pl wins the league once in recorded history (roughly). if this sounds right to you, you're welcome at my poker table anytime.
- celticninja 11y agoThe bookies price it like that because they have zero expectation of them winning the league. If you are familiar with the EPL you would understand why they thought like this. The reason such crazy odds are offered is because otherwise few people would place bets on it. Now next season when the bottom quarter of the table are all at odds of 250/1 a lot of fans will think "remember Leicester last season” and may bet when they otherwise would not have or may bet more, without any real expectation of winning. The odds offered by bookies ate in part based on statistics, probability and business reasons.
- lintiness 11y agoreread my initial post, pal. lc at 5000 to 1 was astonishingly stupid.
- Mikeb85 11y agoIt's been 2 decades since a team other than United, Chelsea, Arsenal or City have won the Premier League...
- lintiness 11y agoso let's make it 5000 years just to be safe.