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The major automakers can of course make 100K luxury automobiles, electric or not. They don't replace the 17 million normally-priced cars the rest of us buy eac

The major automakers can of course make 100K luxury automobiles, electric or not. They don't replace the 17 million normally-priced cars the rest of us buy each year. Studies and predictions are nice, but to build it and make it work takes decades. We have a massive infrastructure in the country. And of course, it won't work the way we planned. Everything changes and pivots, not just SV startups.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> Studies and predictions are nice, but to build it and make it work takes decades. We have a massive infrastructure in the country. And of course, it won't work the way we planned. Everything changes and pivots, not just SV startups. No, no it does not. Existing overnight electrical generation can satisfy replacing every internal combustion vehicle with an electrical vehicle, today, in the United States. Any statements contrary are outright lies.
- JoBrad 11y ago
  There are a lot of warning signs regarding he current US infrastructure, several people have talked about the inability of our current infrastructure to efficiently manage most/all cars suddenly usig the electric grid. But the bigger problem is that you simply can't take a long trip on battery only, without significant delay. I take a twice-yearly trip that takes about 10 hours in a car, with two small kids. That would be hell in an electric car.
- teraflop 11y ago
  > Existing overnight electrical generation can satisfy replacing every internal combustion vehicle with an electrical vehicle, today, in the United States. This isn't so obviously true that it can be asserted without justification. Based on the statistics I'm seeing from the EIA, replacing every light-duty automobile in the USA with a Tesla Model S would increase demand on the electric grid by more than 50%. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=96&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=96&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=gasoline_use https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=gasoline_...
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    Three years ago: http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supporting-up-to-150-million-electric-vehicles/ http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supportin... "The US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory calculated that the grid’s excess capacity will support over 150 million pure electric vehicles. 150 million means that nearly 75% of the vehicles on our roads today could be electric and the grid would have the capacity to support them all." That leaves 25%, right? Right. Considering this is three years ago, it doesn't take into account the rapid expansion of solar and wind generation capacity (which is ~98% of all new generation capacity in 2016). The production tax credit has been extended for another 6 years; you're only going to see more wind and solar projects on the horizon. http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-U.S.-Solar-Market-Now-One-Million-Installations-Strong http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-U.S.-Solar-M... “It took us 40 years to get to 1 million installations, and it will take us only two years to get to 2 million,” said Dan Whitten, vice president of communications at the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). “This is a time to mark when the solar industry started to accelerate at warp speed.” "At the end of 2015, the U.S. solar market hit a total capacity of 27 gigawatts. That represents just 1 percent of the current U.S. electricity mix, but it could triple to 3 percent by 2020. This year alone, the U.S. solar market is projected to grow 119 percent, which represents an additional 16 gigawatts of new installed capacity and more than double the record-breaking 7.3 gigawatts added in 2015." Did you know they give wind power away for free in some parts of Texas because of the excess power they can't transport out? Delicious, clean wind power for electric vehicles. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environment/a-texas-utility-offers-a-nighttime-special-free-electricity.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environmen... So! You said my assertion wasn't obvious. I concede that is correct. The statistics you're seeing from the EIA are grossly inaccurate for comparing internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles when you compare how much more efficient an electric vehicle is. I stand by my thesis: the current US electric grid has sufficient generation capacity to support 100% electric vehicles
- forgotpwtomain 11y ago
  I've had to clarify this several times before on HN* - for the current generation of electrical vehicles well-to-wheel efficiency is not higher than for hybrid gasoline vehicles, meaning that unless the electrical power necessary to support them is generated from non-fossil fuel sources there is no net benefit. That I find myself restating this over and over is just a testatement to how effectively Electrical Vehicles have been marketed. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10525863 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10525863
  - lkbm 11y ago
    Seems like the necessity is simply that the average CO2/joule needs to be lower than a car's ICEs. It's certainly not zero right now, but we're up to 11% hydro/solar/wind[0], so it seems like it likely is cleaner, and it's getting better at a faster rate than ICEs are. 0[] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

toomuchtodo 11y ago

> Studies and predictions are nice, but to build it and make it work takes decades. We have a massive infrastructure in the country. And of course, it won't work the way we planned. Everything changes and pivots, not just SV startups. No, no it does not. Existing overnight electrical generation can satisfy replacing every internal combustion vehicle with an electrical vehicle, today, in the United States. Any statements contrary are outright lies.

JoBrad 11y ago
There are a lot of warning signs regarding he current US infrastructure, several people have talked about the inability of our current infrastructure to efficiently manage most/all cars suddenly usig the electric grid. But the bigger problem is that you simply can't take a long trip on battery only, without significant delay. I take a twice-yearly trip that takes about 10 hours in a car, with two small kids. That would be hell in an electric car.
teraflop 11y ago
> Existing overnight electrical generation can satisfy replacing every internal combustion vehicle with an electrical vehicle, today, in the United States. This isn't so obviously true that it can be asserted without justification. Based on the statistics I'm seeing from the EIA, replacing every light-duty automobile in the USA with a Tesla Model S would increase demand on the electric grid by more than 50%. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=96&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=96&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=gasoline_use https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=gasoline_...
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Three years ago: http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supporting-up-to-150-million-electric-vehicles/ http://insideevs.com/dont-worry-us-grid-capable-of-supportin... "The US Department of Energy’s Pacific Northwest National Laboratory calculated that the grid’s excess capacity will support over 150 million pure electric vehicles. 150 million means that nearly 75% of the vehicles on our roads today could be electric and the grid would have the capacity to support them all." That leaves 25%, right? Right. Considering this is three years ago, it doesn't take into account the rapid expansion of solar and wind generation capacity (which is ~98% of all new generation capacity in 2016). The production tax credit has been extended for another 6 years; you're only going to see more wind and solar projects on the horizon. http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-U.S.-Solar-Market-Now-One-Million-Installations-Strong http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-U.S.-Solar-M... “It took us 40 years to get to 1 million installations, and it will take us only two years to get to 2 million,” said Dan Whitten, vice president of communications at the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA). “This is a time to mark when the solar industry started to accelerate at warp speed.” "At the end of 2015, the U.S. solar market hit a total capacity of 27 gigawatts. That represents just 1 percent of the current U.S. electricity mix, but it could triple to 3 percent by 2020. This year alone, the U.S. solar market is projected to grow 119 percent, which represents an additional 16 gigawatts of new installed capacity and more than double the record-breaking 7.3 gigawatts added in 2015." Did you know they give wind power away for free in some parts of Texas because of the excess power they can't transport out? Delicious, clean wind power for electric vehicles. http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environment/a-texas-utility-offers-a-nighttime-special-free-electricity.html http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/09/business/energy-environmen... So! You said my assertion wasn't obvious. I concede that is correct. The statistics you're seeing from the EIA are grossly inaccurate for comparing internal combustion vehicles to electric vehicles when you compare how much more efficient an electric vehicle is. I stand by my thesis: the current US electric grid has sufficient generation capacity to support 100% electric vehicles
forgotpwtomain 11y ago
I've had to clarify this several times before on HN* - for the current generation of electrical vehicles well-to-wheel efficiency is not higher than for hybrid gasoline vehicles, meaning that unless the electrical power necessary to support them is generated from non-fossil fuel sources there is no net benefit. That I find myself restating this over and over is just a testatement to how effectively Electrical Vehicles have been marketed. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10525863 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10525863
- lkbm 11y ago
  Seems like the necessity is simply that the average CO2/joule needs to be lower than a car's ICEs. It's certainly not zero right now, but we're up to 11% hydro/solar/wind[0], so it seems like it likely is cleaner, and it's getting better at a faster rate than ICEs are. 0[] https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3