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I don't think bitcoin has much utility as a means to transfer value, over the existing solutions. It might be a superior means to store value. The theory is th
by IsaacL 10y ago
I don't think bitcoin has much utility as a means to transfer value, over the existing solutions.
It might be a superior means to store value. The theory is that is as the amount of dollars (or any fiat currency) constantly increases, anyone holding large quantities of dollars will want to exchange them for something with a more fixed supply. Usually this is stocks. Oil futures, property, and gold are also used as stores of value. (In countries with weak currencies, people also hoard dollars as a comparatively stronger source of value).
So the purely monetarist argument says if there are only 21m bitcoins, and an ever-growing amount of dollars, one would expect that the dollar price of bitcoin will only be stable at 0 or infinity. E.g., either the network crashes and bitcoin becomes worthless, or the dollar collapses and bitcoin reigns supreme.
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-and-no-you-cant-have-any/ http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/im-hoarding-bitcoins-an... - see here for more on this theory as regards bitcoin.
The counter to this argument is that a. despite seeming logical, money supply inflation doesn't always seem to occur in reality. E.g., quantitive easing hasn't noticeably increased consumer prices.
b. Bitcoin is volatile, which means it isn't actually a safe store of value. One persuasive argument I heard (from goldbugs) is that bitcoin, having a fixed supply, has no mechanism to stabilise the price, and so booms and busts become self-reinforcing. With gold, on the other hand, the amount mined varies depending on the market price, which smoothes out booms and busts.
I'm expecting both gold and bitcoin to increase in value over the next ten years as the EU and US both lurch from crisis to crisis. This will bring a debate over the future of fiat currency into the mainstream, after which things will get very messy and political. (You can't run a welfare state on gold or bitcoin, for one).
- IsaacL 10y agohttp://coindesk.com/price/ http://coindesk.com/price/ It also seems like bitcoin is enjoying a rally, possibly in anticipation of the reward halving in 10 weeks (in theory the reward halving should already be priced in, but the bitcoin market is not the most rational).
- jbmorgado 10y agoSomething as volatile on price as bitcoin is not a superior means to store value. High capital hates risk, so forget about it ever putting their money into bitcoin to store value. Second, you are coming from the assumption that bitcoin is actually a secure and desirable asset to the world at large. Well, it's not, people just don't want into it and they are not getting into it, even the bitcoin exchanges are living with ever decreasing volume since the beginning of 2014. I can also tell you from a purely personal view, that there are very few people left using Localbitcoins anymore. I used to sell quite a few bitcoins there in 2014, now, nobody is interested anymore, there is no one buying.
- IsaacL 10y agoThanks for sharing your personal experience. However, I actually said in my post that bitcoin may be too volatile, and for that reason I'm not entirely sold on the bullish case. The counter to the reduced volumes is the fact that bitcoin has been enjoying a sustained price rally for the last 5 months.