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Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much. I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automate
by jmspring 11y ago
Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much.
I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automated. Why? It's not just the take crap from point A to point B, it's also being responsible for making sure what was ordered is actually loaded. It will be years before, say, the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic" produce all up and down the west coast) automates their work staff or actually has their schedules down tight.
Trucking and hauling is full of inefficiencies, and those that suffer the most are the drivers. A pickup/dropoff that takes too long because the people at the origin/destination are lazy/slow/don't care/behind has a ripple effect.
And, one could argue "but automated trucks, what schedule?", there will still need to be a human present, regardless. I suspect said human will be restrained by rules similar to what drivers experience now.
- ori_b 11y agoBut we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.
- jmspring 11y agoWhere is the money going to come from for produce suppliers, some on thin profits, to automate where hiring a bunch of seasonal laborers is less overhead, maintenance, etc.
- elsewhen 11y agoif an automated solution ends up being cheaper than manual laborers, then some lending institution will be happy to lend the money for the transition. any players that avoid the transition will likely get obviated by the competitors that capture and pass on the cost savings.
- dragonwriter 11y agoIt's going to come from automation costs dropping and seasonal (and other) labor costs rising in real terms, so that the cost effective approach is automation. Same as everywhere else.
- Bombthecat 11y agoIt is coming from another Uber company. Or maybe a new brunch of Uber.
- jmspring 11y agoSpecifically, the automation of long haul trucking, comparable to what large tanker ships do, may be more feasible. The last mile, scheduling, and the rest, is a horrid mess. A family member is in the business and I live in an area where ag work is prevalent and know people who have worked in such.
- phil21 11y agoAgreed here. I don't think anyone reasonable is suggesting the local delivery trucks are going to get automated any time soon. But the long-haul interstate runs? I see this happening faster than any automated passenger cars, and once it starts it's going to rapidly take over that industry. Probably starts with convoys with a couple human tenders until the tech is proven.
- jonknee 11y agoIt won't be a perfect fit for all types of trucking (say, delivery drivers), but many loads can certainly be transported place to place without a person needing to babysit it. Example: I imagine Amazon would love to be able to move loads around distro centers with automated trucking.
- chrisseaton 11y ago> the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic" produce all up and down the west coast) Why on earth did you pick them out so incredibly specifically and put scare quotes around organic? Doesn't seem relevant.