5 ms·

You are a bayesian analysis with strong priors on the chance of winning. I'm not objecting to your critique (as I don't know much about sports), I just keep thi

by closed 10y ago

You are a bayesian analysis with strong priors on the chance of winning. I'm not objecting to your critique (as I don't know much about sports), I just keep thinking of P(data | model).

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
umanwizard 10y ago
Well, there is no sport or other organized competitive activity I can think of where the best in the world beats the second best in the world more than 95% of the time.
- largote 10y ago
  Maybe sprinting?
  - markeroon 10y ago
    Good call. 800m-10km track races too.
  - umanwizard 10y ago
    Good point. I'd guess that's true of stuff like weightlifting also. These sports that are about pushing your body as far as it can go in one dimension are a lot simpler and "purer" than a team game with lots of moving parts like baseball.
  - ericdykstra 10y ago
    Competitions for "best score" (where score is a time, a number, etc) fall into a different category of sport than those where competitors are facing off head-to-head and there is interaction between competitors. And among the "best score" competitions, those which there is little variance in outcomes will result in a much higher win rate of "best" versus "second best" (a powerlifter or sprinter's score may only vary a few % between good and bad days. a bowlers' or golfers' can be much higher).
- phillc73 10y ago
  Rugby Union. I'd have to look at the exact numbers, but the New Zealand All Blacks have an amazing win rate. They do play the second best team in the world (either Australia or South Africa) on a regular basis and over the last four years have only lost once or twice. Won the last two World Cups. Edit: Here's the data[0]. A 76% win rate since 2003. Twenty-two game winning streak in 2013. Never ranked lower than 3 in the world since 2003. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_national_rugby_union_team https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_national_rugby_u...
  - billforsternz 10y ago
    As a proud New Zealander it pains me to point out that the All Blacks still fall way short of the benchmark set by the parent comment - i.e. beating the second best 95% of the time.
    - phillc73 10y ago
      As an Australian, maybe it just feels that way.
      - chris_overseas 10y ago
        [Edit: just realised the original point was talking about beating the world's second best, not any opposition, so the All Blacks still don't come close to the 95% in the context originally mentioned] That made me laugh (I'm a kiwi), but it's not just a feeling, it's not far off the truth. With Steve Hansen as coach the All Blacks' have won a staggering 92% of their games[1]. There's plenty of articles talking about how their dominance has increased through the professional era[2]. I'm not sure how likely it is to last though given just how many of our key players have left since the world cup, and historically I've NEVER felt confident of the outcome any time we play Australia. [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/newzealand/11938668/Scintillating-New-Zealand-are-the-champions-in-waiting-their-World-Cup-hoodoo-is-officially-bunk.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/ne... [2] http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/sep/11/all-blacks-how-new-zealand-sustains-its-rugby-dynasty http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/sep/11/all-blacks...

by closed 10y ago

You are a bayesian analysis with strong priors on the chance of winning. I'm not objecting to your critique (as I don't know much about sports), I just keep thinking of P(data | model).

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

umanwizard 10y ago

Well, there is no sport or other organized competitive activity I can think of where the best in the world beats the second best in the world more than 95% of the time.

largote 10y ago
Maybe sprinting?
- markeroon 10y ago
  Good call. 800m-10km track races too.
- umanwizard 10y ago
  Good point. I'd guess that's true of stuff like weightlifting also. These sports that are about pushing your body as far as it can go in one dimension are a lot simpler and "purer" than a team game with lots of moving parts like baseball.
- ericdykstra 10y ago
  Competitions for "best score" (where score is a time, a number, etc) fall into a different category of sport than those where competitors are facing off head-to-head and there is interaction between competitors. And among the "best score" competitions, those which there is little variance in outcomes will result in a much higher win rate of "best" versus "second best" (a powerlifter or sprinter's score may only vary a few % between good and bad days. a bowlers' or golfers' can be much higher).
phillc73 10y ago
Rugby Union. I'd have to look at the exact numbers, but the New Zealand All Blacks have an amazing win rate. They do play the second best team in the world (either Australia or South Africa) on a regular basis and over the last four years have only lost once or twice. Won the last two World Cups. Edit: Here's the data[0]. A 76% win rate since 2003. Twenty-two game winning streak in 2013. Never ranked lower than 3 in the world since 2003. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_national_rugby_union_team https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_national_rugby_u...
- billforsternz 10y ago
  As a proud New Zealander it pains me to point out that the All Blacks still fall way short of the benchmark set by the parent comment - i.e. beating the second best 95% of the time.
  - phillc73 10y ago
    As an Australian, maybe it just feels that way.
    - chris_overseas 10y ago
      [Edit: just realised the original point was talking about beating the world's second best, not any opposition, so the All Blacks still don't come close to the 95% in the context originally mentioned] That made me laugh (I'm a kiwi), but it's not just a feeling, it's not far off the truth. With Steve Hansen as coach the All Blacks' have won a staggering 92% of their games[1]. There's plenty of articles talking about how their dominance has increased through the professional era[2]. I'm not sure how likely it is to last though given just how many of our key players have left since the world cup, and historically I've NEVER felt confident of the outcome any time we play Australia. [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/newzealand/11938668/Scintillating-New-Zealand-are-the-champions-in-waiting-their-World-Cup-hoodoo-is-officially-bunk.html http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/international/ne... [2] http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/sep/11/all-blacks-how-new-zealand-sustains-its-rugby-dynasty http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2015/sep/11/all-blacks...