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I was just thinking these past few days how AMD is highly undervalued and would likely see a big boost from the launch of Zen. Since Zen is still not launched y
by mtgx 11y ago
I was just thinking these past few days how AMD is highly undervalued and would likely see a big boost from the launch of Zen. Since Zen is still not launched yet, I think there's opportunity for the stock to grow even up to 100% or more from where it was.
As a little side note, I think it's fantastic that AMD is replacing its E-series APUs that used Atom-like CPU cores in low-end notebooks, at a time when Intel is doing the exact opposite by replacing the Core micro-architecture in Celerons and Pentiums with Atom, so it can sell what are essentially $30-$40 chips for $107-$160.
http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jpg http://fudzilla.com/images/stories/2015/April/amd-desktop.jp...
Intel did this because it thought AMD is no real competition technically, but more importantly from a brand point of view (Intel thought people will keep buying its chips at the same price points even if it replaces them with a much weaker core with many fewer hardware features). With Zen in general (thank you Jim Keller! [1]), but also with Zen in the low-end of the market, AMD just called Intel's bluff - and I think it will win this one while Intel is stuck with Atom in Celerons and Pentiums for the next few years.
The dual-core Zen CPUs in the E-series should absolutely trash the Atom-based Celerons and Pentiums, and likely the scammy $280 Core M chip as well. APUs like the A4 and A6 were already destroying Atom-based Celerons in terms of price/performance.
Looking forward to the quad-core/8 thread Zen APUs that will compete against the dual-core/4-thread Core i3 and Core i5 as well, and may even beat them on single-thread performance, if the price is equalized. From some calculations I've seen Zen may come within 10% of Intel's IPC at the same clock speed, even for Kaby Lake. But you may be able to get say an AMD chip that has the same performance as Core i3 in single-thread, almost twice the performance in multi-thread, and still cost 10% less.
As another side note, I really hope Qualcomm ends up buying AMD, though it probably should've done it last year, and it may have done it, too, if it wasn't for their own Snapdragon 810 blunder, which almost got its board to sell the chip division (a huge mistake, which I'm glad they eventually rejected).
Now the price is going to increase by 2x or more. Hopefully AMD's shareholders won't get greedy and sell for cheap, because AMD needs an infusion of cash as well, so it can adopt the latest process nodes as quickly as they are available, and so it can develop and launch multiple lines of products at the same time. That's how it can become much more competitive.
I think Qualcomm would be a good steward of AMD (it already bought the mobile GPU division from AMD a decade ago, and has taken full advantage of it). It has the commitment and incentive to want to beat Intel and go after its profits in the PC and server markets, while operating on much lower cost structures (Innovator's Dilemma and all that). But it can't do that with ARM chips alone, in part because Windows' universal apps are still a no-show for now, and in part because ARM's entrance into the server market is going to be a very slow and long process. Qualcomm's entrance into those markets would be much accelerated through an AMD acquisition (as long as it's not bank-breaking one that starves Qualcomm out of resources to invest).
Another decent buyer would be Samsung, but I only hope they do it if they are truly committed to being a chip powerhouse and to compete against Intel toe-to-toe, no matter how much it costs them to do it, otherwise it's better to stay out of it.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Keller_(engineer)
- osivertsson 11y agoI sure hope AMD can compete on both price and performance with Zen but: As you say it is not released yet, let's hope they really achieve a 2016 rollout. Is there really any money in the lowend notebook market for CPU vendors? I think what Intel realizes is that no one really wants a fan in a notebook. Not consumers (noise), not manufacturers (less parts, cheaper). For some the performance is worth the noise, but that is only at the high end, and will Zen be able to compete there? Who will buy Zen? What is the market? Lowend is mobile + RPi3 etc. Mid doesn't exist anymore, and highend they will still not be able to compete?
- mtgx 11y ago<15W TDP is enough for just about any notebook. Any 5W "fat core" CPU is mostly a scam at this point, and they aren't really viable until at least 10nm. They throttle too much (in the ultra-slim devices in which they are put), but Intel wanted to sell them anyway (Broadwell Core M was a complete dud because of this). And Core M is also eating a big chunk out of manufacturers' profits. It's more expensive than a Core i5. Zen will be competitive at all levels in terms of performance, price and power, not just the low-end. Now, if Intel makes the highest-end Core i7 Extreme Ultra Edition chip for say $800, and AMD only makes a highest end chip one that costs $600, then yes, I would imagine Intel would still be the "winner" in "peak performance" in the PC market. But that's an out of context comparison. The price metric should always be included in the context. What I want to know is if I have to spend $200 on a chip and for a TDP of 15W, which one has the best CPU at that price point? AMD or Intel? What about at the $300 price point and a 30W TDP? If it's AMD, then I don't care that Intel can make a 5% faster one for $350. I only said the Zen-based E-series, which will go into things such as $200-$300 Chromebooks, will destroy Intel. And I'm not sure what you mean by "there's no mid-range". The average price for a notebook is around $500.
- OliverJones 11y agoSchools in the developed world are doing massive notebook-sized buildout. Power consumption is the driving force in data-center buildouts. The big data center buyers have a major incentive to make sure they have more than one supplier.
- 11y ago