>I predict that in the next major conflict, aircraft carriers will be utterly useless, most of our big flat-tops will be sunk in the first couple months, and th

>I predict that in the next major conflict, aircraft carriers will be utterly useless, most of our big flat-tops will be sunk in the first couple months, and the bulk of combat will fall to a large fleet of inexpensive drones. Having worked on naval air defense, I can tell you carrier battle groups in open water are a lot tougher than people think. If a major conflict started today, unless it went nuclear the carriers would probably survive. Of course the scenario matters a lot. A carrier group in the Med is a lot more vulnerable than a carrier group near Hawaii. A carrier group during peacetime is a lot more vulnerable than a carrier group during a war. Etc. That's today. It's hard to say how things will develop - I think we'll see a lot more DF-21D style anti-ship ballistic missiles, but we're getting better and better at knocking those things down, too. The difference between the interwar period and now is there isn't a clear successor technology. If you want to project force, the carrier is still the best way to do it and will be for the foreseeable future.