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Looking at the demographics and political climate of America, I am not at all bullish on the idea of the continuation of long-term bull market. Ignoring anythi
by MicroBerto 10y ago
Looking at the demographics and political climate of America, I am not at all bullish on the idea of the continuation of long-term bull market.
Ignoring anything technical, there are two extremely strong things going against the markets:
1. The fact that the boomers will be drawing down on their investments as they retire and begin to spend them.
2. The sentiment that is growing against our corporatist structure that has propped earnings up (ie the jobless recovery). Whether it's Bernie or Trump you support, it doesn't matter -- well over half the country is voting against policies that have made the stock market so successful at the expense of the American middle class
My point being, market knowledge is always important to have, but I'd advise against putting all of your time into it. It's going to be stagnant for a generation. IMHO you are better off building a real business with your time. Get ahead of the game and see where the future is headed -- the trend is your friend.
- VLM 10y ago3. Demographic shifts. For example the classic nobody is going to buy cars because we'll all live in luxury city apartments and uber. As if the FIRE sector will simply give up on car loan revenue, those dollars will have to come from somewhere. Or if you laugh at the boosterism people for saying the same things since 1970 and it all fails, then who eats the losses on those luxury apartments and gig economy taxi startups? Either way its going to be very exciting.