5 ms·

>I'd file this headline under the category of "questions to which the answer is no". Obviously if Bitcoin goes tits-up it will not be more stable than gold. Th

by tedks 10y ago

>I'd file this headline under the category of "questions to which the answer is no". Obviously if Bitcoin goes tits-up it will not be more stable than gold. There seems to be a non-trivial probability Bitcoin will go tits-up from shitty governance alone, but barring that it seems to me that Bitcoin has the potential to be far more stable than gold. Access to gold is dependent on a large amount of geopolitical factors that could all change at any time, as well as mineral extraction technology that is getting better all the time. Extrapolating far enough, we'll never find an asteroid that's miraculously made almost entirely out of Bitcoin. I'm curious as to whether your viewpoint is the same for all cryptocurrency or just Bitcoin.

cbr 10y ago
we'll never find an asteroid that's miraculously made almost entirely out of Bitcoin I think we're more likely to find a very fast way to compute sha256 hashes than a 10T+ gold asteroid.
- ikeboy 10y ago
  As long as we can't preimage arbitrary hashes, the difficulty will adjust. There are contingency plans for if a preimage becomes possible, and I suspect they'll move to a stronger hash before it's needed.
  - cbr 10y ago
    If you figure out how to hash 1000x more efficiently than other people and put that into practice without sharing your knowledge then you can cheaply get and maintain a hashpower supermajority. (I'm not saying this is likely, just more likely than finding a large gold asteroid.)
    - ikeboy 10y ago
      People will notice soon enough, and they'll switch to a different algorithm. It takes time for the difficulty to go up, it only resets every 2016 blocks and is limited.
nosuchthing 10y ago
Access to Bitcoin is dependent on a large amount of social and technological factors that could all change at any time, as well as altcoin extraction technology that is getting better all the time.
- tedks 10y ago
  But the Internet is a distributed, nominally-decentralized system that's built to be resilient. We've seen how difficult it is to cut off Internet access to even regions within dictatorial nation-states. Compare that to gold supply/trade.
  - cb18 10y ago
    Compare that to gold supply/trade. It would seem much easier and reassuring to slip some gold into your pocket if you're concerned about electrical or communication networks being severed. Also the part where the vast majority of people have no idea wtf bitcoin is or how to use it wouldn't be reassuring. I don't understand this existential battle bitcoin wants to play with gold. They can co-exist, they're fundamentally different, one is not inherently superior, they are different. Bitcoiners just like to play this fantasy of "Oh, if only bitcoin can replace this millennia entrenched system of which it has no rational basis to do so, I'd be so rich! Yippee!"
cb18 10y ago
The characteristics from which gold derives it's value are basic facts of the universe. The characteristic from which bitcoin derives it's value is a brand name. A 'bitcoin asteroid' can be found by simply copying the bitcoin source code and building a stronger brand.
- suprfsat 10y ago
  A bitcoin asteroid can be created by launching a sufficient mass of bitcoin pundits into orbit around the sun.
- digi_owl 10y ago
  > The characteristics from which gold derives it's value are basic facts of the universe. Yeah, human ability to worship.
  - cb18 10y ago
    I was thinking more along the lines of resistance to corrosion, elemental arrangement of particles, etc. Theoretically, human ability to worship should be transferable to any object of worship.
    - digi_owl 10y ago
      Those practical properties do not explain the special significance pure gold is given in world trade. Frankly form where i am sitting that significance has virtually shit all to do with golds chemical properties, and all to do with history. Trade among locals were likely settled via OIUs (carrots now for mutton later or whatever). But settlement between distant peoples were harder. One option would be by weight, with the lowest common denominator being some food grain or other. And here gold may come in, from one of those properties you mentioned, resistance to corrosion. Makes for a durable weight measurement token. But weight depends on purity. So in comes some ruler or other that puts a brand on a measure of gold to guarantee the purity. Over time that guarantee then becomes so reliable that people starting using the tokens directly in exchange rather than bringing out the scales. But it is the purity guarantee that in the end make gold more than a shiny metal. And using modern material production the same guarantee could just as well be placed on a piece of plastic or similar. But still people go gaga over gold. AKA worship.

by tedks 10y ago

cbr 10y ago

we'll never find an asteroid that's miraculously made almost entirely out of Bitcoin I think we're more likely to find a very fast way to compute sha256 hashes than a 10T+ gold asteroid.

ikeboy 10y ago
As long as we can't preimage arbitrary hashes, the difficulty will adjust. There are contingency plans for if a preimage becomes possible, and I suspect they'll move to a stronger hash before it's needed.
- cbr 10y ago
  If you figure out how to hash 1000x more efficiently than other people and put that into practice without sharing your knowledge then you can cheaply get and maintain a hashpower supermajority. (I'm not saying this is likely, just more likely than finding a large gold asteroid.)
  - ikeboy 10y ago
    People will notice soon enough, and they'll switch to a different algorithm. It takes time for the difficulty to go up, it only resets every 2016 blocks and is limited.

nosuchthing 10y ago

Access to Bitcoin is dependent on a large amount of social and technological factors that could all change at any time, as well as altcoin extraction technology that is getting better all the time.

tedks 10y ago
But the Internet is a distributed, nominally-decentralized system that's built to be resilient. We've seen how difficult it is to cut off Internet access to even regions within dictatorial nation-states. Compare that to gold supply/trade.
- cb18 10y ago
  Compare that to gold supply/trade. It would seem much easier and reassuring to slip some gold into your pocket if you're concerned about electrical or communication networks being severed. Also the part where the vast majority of people have no idea wtf bitcoin is or how to use it wouldn't be reassuring. I don't understand this existential battle bitcoin wants to play with gold. They can co-exist, they're fundamentally different, one is not inherently superior, they are different. Bitcoiners just like to play this fantasy of "Oh, if only bitcoin can replace this millennia entrenched system of which it has no rational basis to do so, I'd be so rich! Yippee!"

cb18 10y ago

The characteristics from which gold derives it's value are basic facts of the universe. The characteristic from which bitcoin derives it's value is a brand name. A 'bitcoin asteroid' can be found by simply copying the bitcoin source code and building a stronger brand.

suprfsat 10y ago
A bitcoin asteroid can be created by launching a sufficient mass of bitcoin pundits into orbit around the sun.
digi_owl 10y ago
> The characteristics from which gold derives it's value are basic facts of the universe. Yeah, human ability to worship.
- cb18 10y ago
  I was thinking more along the lines of resistance to corrosion, elemental arrangement of particles, etc. Theoretically, human ability to worship should be transferable to any object of worship.
  - digi_owl 10y ago
    Those practical properties do not explain the special significance pure gold is given in world trade. Frankly form where i am sitting that significance has virtually shit all to do with golds chemical properties, and all to do with history. Trade among locals were likely settled via OIUs (carrots now for mutton later or whatever). But settlement between distant peoples were harder. One option would be by weight, with the lowest common denominator being some food grain or other. And here gold may come in, from one of those properties you mentioned, resistance to corrosion. Makes for a durable weight measurement token. But weight depends on purity. So in comes some ruler or other that puts a brand on a measure of gold to guarantee the purity. Over time that guarantee then becomes so reliable that people starting using the tokens directly in exchange rather than bringing out the scales. But it is the purity guarantee that in the end make gold more than a shiny metal. And using modern material production the same guarantee could just as well be placed on a piece of plastic or similar. But still people go gaga over gold. AKA worship.