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1. The lack of pilot problem affects only regional carriers but not national airlines level yet. 2. Regional carriers can't afford to increase pilot salaries b
by meric 11y ago
1. The lack of pilot problem affects only regional carriers but not national airlines level yet.
2. Regional carriers can't afford to increase pilot salaries because national airlines are stingy.
This problem will begin to resolve, when the lack of pilot issue works up into the national airlines level. Eventually national airlines will be out of pilots, and they will be forced to either raise pilot salaries or institute training programs, or provide more favourable deals to regional airlines.
The problem initially started by passing of the bill in 2009 increasing the number of hours First Officers require by 5 times.
Since it takes a decade or more to train a pilot to that level, it may take a decade or more for the issue to percolate into the national airlines level.
By 2019, national airlines will be feeling the pinch in pilots and be forced to act. As they ramp up salaries, or provide more favourable deals to regional carriers, or implement trainee programs that train new recruits from from the ground up, or fully subsidising they training, the number of pilots entering flight schools will increase, or automating pilots away entirely.
By 2029, due to the previous ten years of work national airlines had done to attract pilots, or reduce dependency on them using automation, the issue of a lack of pilots will be resolved.
- guard-of-terra 11y agoIt's kind of scary that fixing pilot problem is going to take longer than it took aviation to go from first passenger jet to first 747! Comet entered service in 52 and Jumbo Jet flew commercially in 1970. Compare this with 2009-2029 range you proposed. The pace of change in "modern" world is depressing and that we are content with it is depressing even more. How about next year? Also note how fast you can break something. Pass an act in a month, fix its fallout in 20 years.
- meric 11y agoYou could move to Beijing, they're planning to open 18 new subway lines between now and end of 2020[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway#Future_lines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beijing_Subway#Future_lines
- guard-of-terra 11y agoThey're actually awesome, it takes them to build four lines as a new system the same time as it takes to build four-stations existing system expansion in cities outside China. Moscow metro expansion plan is comparably bold but I doubt they'll deliver.
- pyrale 11y ago> Also note how fast you can break something. Pass an act in a month, fix its fallout in 20 years. I wouldn't blame it only on that bill. Airlines could have built a responsible pilot training system to address their needs while complying with those rules. Instead they built a racketeering system where pilots _pay_ companies for the right to work for them and earn hours. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pay_to_fly This is a textbook example of companies maiming themselves on the long term in order to get some fast cash.