7 ms·

Seems like an economics problem. The airplanes are full. The airlines are making lots of money. There aren't enough pilots. Hmm.... Perhaps pay them more?

th0ma5 10y ago
This is what all the pilots I've met are saying.
- bayesian_horse 10y ago
  It's what every employee in any profession is ever saying.
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    Well, if there is an employee shortage ...
x0x0 10y ago
Careful: don't apply that thinking to the "engineering shortage" or you'll never hear the end of it on HN. Engineers live in magicland, and in magicland, supply curves don't exist. People should work for passion and $60k, and if you don't, you're not a real engineer.
- narsil 10y ago
  Not sure what you mean. Plenty, if not most, engineers on HN are compensated at market rate for their region and skill-set. The uproar over the anti-poaching scandal involving Apple, Google, etc. from a few years ago was due to the artificial wage deflation that it created. I can't recall folks from HN siding with the corporations during that time. Sure, sweat equity is valued at early-stage cash-strapped startups, but that is in addition to "passion" and a lower salary.
taneq 10y ago
That's only half of the equation. They can't get more pilots by paying more, because the requirements to become a pilot are so arduous. According to the article, trainee pilots have to pony up ~$150k in training costs, as well as spend many years working in scarce non-commercial-carrier jobs. So in part, the solution would be to create more non-commercial-carrier pilot jobs, and/or for airlines to start sponsoring trainee pilots to make it more attractive (or even possible) for them to get qualified.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- throwaway_exer 10y ago
  I've been watching this government-made crisis develop over the last 24 months. Currently, you need 1,200 hours experience from a designated aviation college or 1,500 hours experience from GA. I believe airlines will lobby Congress to halve the number of hours in the very near future as they get data on the massive pilot shortage.
  - cr1895 10y ago
    Wasn't this requisite level of experience upped by Congress not terribly long ago?
    - steffan 10y ago
      Yes. In the US, originally you could be a First Officer without holding the ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) certificate. The ATP requires 1500 hours of flight time. Prior to the rule change, you would see regional airlines recruiting pilots with as low as 400 hours of total time (TT) for FO positions, allowing them to build the requisite hours to obtain their ATP.
- x0x0 10y ago
  The article mentions JetBlue is running a so-called ab initio program where they train pilots directly for the low sum of $125k! That's right -- pay $125k to (maybe) get a good job in 15 years. As long as they charge 6 figures, there isn't a real pilot shortage. This is just the industry whining in the hope of finding a sucker (US taxpayers) to subsidize a training program for them.
noja 10y ago
Tinfoil hat: underpay the pilots... "oh look we don't have enough pilots"... automation time!
- atemerev 10y ago
  It's not a tinfoil hat, it is the only solution that will inevitably be implemented. In the world where I routinely get cross-Europe plane tickets for $30, airline pilots are about as glamorous as truck drivers, and will be replaced by robots about as soon. And no, nobody wants to go back to the time when average ticket price was $300 or more.
atemerev 10y ago
Since when airlines make a lot of money? Their profit margins are so thin I wonder how they survive at all. The solution is obvious, of course. Machines can drive cars, hence, they will be also flying planes soon. Pilots complaining their jobs are routine? Good. All routine jobs are to be eliminated, the sooner the better.
- dzhiurgis 10y ago
  I believe the airports themselves need more automation.
  - atemerev 10y ago
    A modern large airport is the pinnacle of efficiency. Most of things there are already quite automated, or on the way to it.
- mathattack 10y ago
  In a historical context, you are right. Warren Buffett once said something to the effect of, "A far-sighted capitalist would have shot down the Wright Brothers" [0] More recently the combination of consolidation, less competition and lower fuel costs have created record profits. [1] [2] [3] Also, machines are already doing most of the flying. "Autopilot" comes from aviation. :-) Automatic planes are actually a less tricky problem than automatic cars, as there's much less random stuff to navigate in the air. [4] [0] http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/12/business-quotations http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/12/business-quo... [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/business/energy-environment/airlines-reap-record-profits-and-passengers-get-peanuts.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/business/energy-environmen... [2] http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2016/01/12/airline-profits-2015/78647924/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2016/01/12/airl... [3] http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/us-carriers-airline-industry-record-global-profits http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/us-carriers-... [4] http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/ http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/
  - 10y ago
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
bayesian_horse 10y ago
Not the whole issue. At the very least, raising wages significantly would mean higher ticket prices which in turn means lower demand. The airlines are also afraid to put pilots in a situation of power at the negotiation table.
- mathattack 10y ago
  Right. This is the joy of a market. If a skill is scarce, people pay more for it. That encourages people to supply more of it.

th0ma5 10y ago

This is what all the pilots I've met are saying.

bayesian_horse 10y ago
It's what every employee in any profession is ever saying.
- mpweiher 10y ago
  Well, if there is an employee shortage ...

x0x0 10y ago

Careful: don't apply that thinking to the "engineering shortage" or you'll never hear the end of it on HN. Engineers live in magicland, and in magicland, supply curves don't exist. People should work for passion and $60k, and if you don't, you're not a real engineer.

narsil 10y ago
Not sure what you mean. Plenty, if not most, engineers on HN are compensated at market rate for their region and skill-set. The uproar over the anti-poaching scandal involving Apple, Google, etc. from a few years ago was due to the artificial wage deflation that it created. I can't recall folks from HN siding with the corporations during that time. Sure, sweat equity is valued at early-stage cash-strapped startups, but that is in addition to "passion" and a lower salary.

taneq 10y ago

That's only half of the equation. They can't get more pilots by paying more, because the requirements to become a pilot are so arduous. According to the article, trainee pilots have to pony up ~$150k in training costs, as well as spend many years working in scarce non-commercial-carrier jobs. So in part, the solution would be to create more non-commercial-carrier pilot jobs, and/or for airlines to start sponsoring trainee pilots to make it more attractive (or even possible) for them to get qualified.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
throwaway_exer 10y ago
I've been watching this government-made crisis develop over the last 24 months. Currently, you need 1,200 hours experience from a designated aviation college or 1,500 hours experience from GA. I believe airlines will lobby Congress to halve the number of hours in the very near future as they get data on the massive pilot shortage.
- cr1895 10y ago
  Wasn't this requisite level of experience upped by Congress not terribly long ago?
  - steffan 10y ago
    Yes. In the US, originally you could be a First Officer without holding the ATP (Airline Transport Pilot) certificate. The ATP requires 1500 hours of flight time. Prior to the rule change, you would see regional airlines recruiting pilots with as low as 400 hours of total time (TT) for FO positions, allowing them to build the requisite hours to obtain their ATP.
x0x0 10y ago
The article mentions JetBlue is running a so-called ab initio program where they train pilots directly for the low sum of $125k! That's right -- pay $125k to (maybe) get a good job in 15 years. As long as they charge 6 figures, there isn't a real pilot shortage. This is just the industry whining in the hope of finding a sucker (US taxpayers) to subsidize a training program for them.

noja 10y ago

Tinfoil hat: underpay the pilots... "oh look we don't have enough pilots"... automation time!

atemerev 10y ago
It's not a tinfoil hat, it is the only solution that will inevitably be implemented. In the world where I routinely get cross-Europe plane tickets for $30, airline pilots are about as glamorous as truck drivers, and will be replaced by robots about as soon. And no, nobody wants to go back to the time when average ticket price was $300 or more.

atemerev 10y ago

Since when airlines make a lot of money? Their profit margins are so thin I wonder how they survive at all. The solution is obvious, of course. Machines can drive cars, hence, they will be also flying planes soon. Pilots complaining their jobs are routine? Good. All routine jobs are to be eliminated, the sooner the better.

dzhiurgis 10y ago
I believe the airports themselves need more automation.
- atemerev 10y ago
  A modern large airport is the pinnacle of efficiency. Most of things there are already quite automated, or on the way to it.
mathattack 10y ago
In a historical context, you are right. Warren Buffett once said something to the effect of, "A far-sighted capitalist would have shot down the Wright Brothers" [0] More recently the combination of consolidation, less competition and lower fuel costs have created record profits. [1] [2] [3] Also, machines are already doing most of the flying. "Autopilot" comes from aviation. :-) Automatic planes are actually a less tricky problem than automatic cars, as there's much less random stuff to navigate in the air. [4] [0] http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/12/business-quotations http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/12/business-quo... [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/business/energy-environment/airlines-reap-record-profits-and-passengers-get-peanuts.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/07/business/energy-environmen... [2] http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2016/01/12/airline-profits-2015/78647924/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/flights/2016/01/12/airl... [3] http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/us-carriers-airline-industry-record-global-profits http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jun/08/us-carriers-... [4] http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/ http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/24/travel/autopilot-airlines/
- 10y ago

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

bayesian_horse 10y ago

Not the whole issue. At the very least, raising wages significantly would mean higher ticket prices which in turn means lower demand. The airlines are also afraid to put pilots in a situation of power at the negotiation table.

mathattack 10y ago
Right. This is the joy of a market. If a skill is scarce, people pay more for it. That encourages people to supply more of it.