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>the marketplace for on-demand drivers will become obsolete once autonomous driving becomes good enough to be adopted everywhere I'm not holding my breath, it'

>the marketplace for on-demand drivers will become obsolete once autonomous driving becomes good enough to be adopted everywhere I'm not holding my breath, it'll be a looong time (decades, plural) before driver-less cars work everywhere, in poor weather conditions, in areas with lots of cyclists and pedestrians, in developing nations and parts of developed nations with bad roads, bad or unenforced traffic laws etc.. Human drivers will have a reduced role, but they won't be "obsolete" any time soon. Driver-less cars likely means people taking more trips, causing more congestion and more pollution on the roads where they can actually operate. I wouldn't be surprised if some cities ban them.

Nutmog 11y ago
Taking more trips to get to places they want to be. Traffic is a good thing, not a bad thing.
- wcummings 11y ago
  >Traffic is a good thing, not a bad thing. Until your kid gets asthma so people can have the privilege of spending 2 hours in a car commuting. Not to mention making the roads less usable for everyone who isn't in a car.
- aninhumer 11y ago
  No, people taking trips is a good thing. Traffic is a mostly negative side effect of that, if they choose to travel by car.
epistasis 11y ago
I think by then, electric cars will be cheaper to purchase and operate than gas vehicles, so the pollution won't be much of an issue. But you are 100% right that congestion will be the problem. Cars simply do not scale well, as the amount of sqft/passenger/minute is huge. We seem to be unwilling to devote the huge amounts of land to highways that we would need to in order to make congestion go away. And in cities, intersections can only let so many vehicles through per minute. As another commenter said, traffic is a good problem, however it's only good until it stops trips. It's great for people to be moving about, but when traffic prevents that, it's bad. Autonomous drivers give people back their time in the car to do with as they please, but they will definitely increase congestion.
- mahyarm 11y ago
  A lot of congestion comes from cars looking for parking and cars not being shared with other people. The self driving cars are not going to be looking for parking, and can automatically scale what is on the road based on demand. They will also be more efficient with sharing a vehicle with multiple people, or have more specialized mini cars to scale trips properly.
  - epistasis 11y ago
    Those self-driving cars are also going to be driving all over to pick people up, almost certainly more than is used for parking. And when there's a surplus of self-driving cars, where do they go? There will be an increase in miles driven per passenger mile in order to get the self driving cars to where they need to be, when they need to be.
  - wcummings 11y ago
    The added trips will offset the gains
  - ams6110 11y ago
    Most people don't like to share rides with strangers. There may be a preference for smaller but more vehicles.
    - aninhumer 11y ago
      Smaller vehicles will be far more practical in an automated taxi model as well. No one wants to own a single person car, because even a single person wants to be able to carry passengers if they need to. But lots of people will be making single person journeys all the time, so it makes sense for a taxi company to own them.
- superuser2 11y ago
  >the pollution won't be much of an issue Depends. In St. Louis, for example, a fully electric vehicle produces the same pollution (via the power plant) as a 36mpg car [0]. That's about in line with a highly-rated compact like the Golf or Mazda3 these days. Electric vehicles give us the capability to reduce emissions by building cleaner electrical infrastructure, but that does not mean we will do so. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_long_tailpipe#Carbon_footprint_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_long_tailpipe#Carbon_footp...
vehementi 11y ago
Self driving mini busses semi-scheduled for commuters

Nutmog 11y ago

Taking more trips to get to places they want to be. Traffic is a good thing, not a bad thing.

wcummings 11y ago
>Traffic is a good thing, not a bad thing. Until your kid gets asthma so people can have the privilege of spending 2 hours in a car commuting. Not to mention making the roads less usable for everyone who isn't in a car.
aninhumer 11y ago
No, people taking trips is a good thing. Traffic is a mostly negative side effect of that, if they choose to travel by car.

epistasis 11y ago

I think by then, electric cars will be cheaper to purchase and operate than gas vehicles, so the pollution won't be much of an issue. But you are 100% right that congestion will be the problem. Cars simply do not scale well, as the amount of sqft/passenger/minute is huge. We seem to be unwilling to devote the huge amounts of land to highways that we would need to in order to make congestion go away. And in cities, intersections can only let so many vehicles through per minute. As another commenter said, traffic is a good problem, however it's only good until it stops trips. It's great for people to be moving about, but when traffic prevents that, it's bad. Autonomous drivers give people back their time in the car to do with as they please, but they will definitely increase congestion.

mahyarm 11y ago
A lot of congestion comes from cars looking for parking and cars not being shared with other people. The self driving cars are not going to be looking for parking, and can automatically scale what is on the road based on demand. They will also be more efficient with sharing a vehicle with multiple people, or have more specialized mini cars to scale trips properly.
- epistasis 11y ago
  Those self-driving cars are also going to be driving all over to pick people up, almost certainly more than is used for parking. And when there's a surplus of self-driving cars, where do they go? There will be an increase in miles driven per passenger mile in order to get the self driving cars to where they need to be, when they need to be.
- wcummings 11y ago
  The added trips will offset the gains
- ams6110 11y ago
  Most people don't like to share rides with strangers. There may be a preference for smaller but more vehicles.
  - aninhumer 11y ago
    Smaller vehicles will be far more practical in an automated taxi model as well. No one wants to own a single person car, because even a single person wants to be able to carry passengers if they need to. But lots of people will be making single person journeys all the time, so it makes sense for a taxi company to own them.
superuser2 11y ago
>the pollution won't be much of an issue Depends. In St. Louis, for example, a fully electric vehicle produces the same pollution (via the power plant) as a 36mpg car [0]. That's about in line with a highly-rated compact like the Golf or Mazda3 these days. Electric vehicles give us the capability to reduce emissions by building cleaner electrical infrastructure, but that does not mean we will do so. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_long_tailpipe#Carbon_footprint_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_long_tailpipe#Carbon_footp...

vehementi 11y ago

Self driving mini busses semi-scheduled for commuters