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A war between Israel and the Arab nations is unavoidable without the US mediating through 3rd parties (like SA). This would be an extremely large and bloody war

A war between Israel and the Arab nations is unavoidable without the US mediating through 3rd parties (like SA). This would be an extremely large and bloody war by itself, but it will inevitably lead to hotspots in other parts of the world, like China claiming Taiwan, settling disputes India. India would want to settle disputes with Pakistan. Russia would want to claim back some part of Eastern Europe. Turkey would want something else entirely. Obviously other counties have interests too. Vietnam? The Koreas? Thailand? Indonesia? All of them have something to prove. And only god knows what would happen in Africa.

dogma1138 10y ago
Israel is probably fine negotiating with the Arab states on it's own. It has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt, and various levels of official and unofficial relations with the Gulf states. Iran is an issue, so is the Hezbollah controlled parts of Lebanon and Syria if Assad falls is also up for grabs but with all 3 the US can't mediate anyhow. And piggy backing on this there is very little prospect for actual war between Israel and the Arab states, neither Jordan nor Egypt would go to war, there is no scenario in which Israel will some how will find it self in war with either Saudi Arabia nor the other gulf states that for the most part do not have much military presence and even less force projection. So the only thing which is left is a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which isn't exactly something you can call bloody, excluding the "war of independence" Israel longest and bloodiest war was the 'Yom Kippur' war which lasted for 19 days. If Syria falls to ISIS and or Hezbollah decides to stir things up again you might see a limited engagement in the north of Israel, which might lead to the re-establishment of a security buffer like the one during Israel's invasion into Lebanon (albeit most likely without the (South)Lebanese Army being allied with Israel this time), but there is simply no scenario in which this can escalate into anything than a meaningless regional conflict that would barely impact the daily life in Israel not to mention the world. The middle east is a powder cake indeed but Israel has little to do with it, an all out war is considerably more likely to happen between SA and Iran than even between Iran and Israel not to mention between the "Arab States" and Israel. The Arab states simply has no reason, will or ability to start a war with Israel, and Israel is not going to start a war on it's own.
- themartorana 10y ago
  If we stopped gently holding down Israels's rage at every shell that gets sent their way, I can certainly see Israel's own hard-lined leaders trying to slap down Palestinians and their outside support once and for all. Such a lopsided military offense would certainly draw support against Israel from other parts of the Arab world, and the rest is a snowball on a steep hill. But this is conjecture to be sure.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    That's not a conjecture that's not even fantasy, that's a complete ignorance of the political situation. Israel isn't being lead by hard-liners (when comparing them to US hard liners / right wing), the "Likud" is called a right wing party, mostly because back when it was established the Israeli left still had a hammer and a sickle in their logo. Israel has no reason to bomb the Palestinians out of existence and while I doesn't want to give up territory for many reasons with security being a prime one, it also doesn't show intent no has a reason to go out for an all out war. Offensive operations are not viewed well by the Israeli public, not to mention that even if they did went all out on the Palestinians no one in the Arab world would really care. The Palestinian issue isn't and wasn't anything more than a front in the wider conflict between the Arab states and Israel, that conflict is long gone and faded. If the Arabs cared about Palestinians they would not block the UN from treating them as refugees, they would not force them to live in camps for 70 years passing their situation to their children and instead of denying them every right they could easily have resettled them by now.

dogma1138 10y ago

Israel is probably fine negotiating with the Arab states on it's own. It has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt, and various levels of official and unofficial relations with the Gulf states. Iran is an issue, so is the Hezbollah controlled parts of Lebanon and Syria if Assad falls is also up for grabs but with all 3 the US can't mediate anyhow. And piggy backing on this there is very little prospect for actual war between Israel and the Arab states, neither Jordan nor Egypt would go to war, there is no scenario in which Israel will some how will find it self in war with either Saudi Arabia nor the other gulf states that for the most part do not have much military presence and even less force projection. So the only thing which is left is a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which isn't exactly something you can call bloody, excluding the "war of independence" Israel longest and bloodiest war was the 'Yom Kippur' war which lasted for 19 days. If Syria falls to ISIS and or Hezbollah decides to stir things up again you might see a limited engagement in the north of Israel, which might lead to the re-establishment of a security buffer like the one during Israel's invasion into Lebanon (albeit most likely without the (South)Lebanese Army being allied with Israel this time), but there is simply no scenario in which this can escalate into anything than a meaningless regional conflict that would barely impact the daily life in Israel not to mention the world. The middle east is a powder cake indeed but Israel has little to do with it, an all out war is considerably more likely to happen between SA and Iran than even between Iran and Israel not to mention between the "Arab States" and Israel. The Arab states simply has no reason, will or ability to start a war with Israel, and Israel is not going to start a war on it's own.

themartorana 10y ago
If we stopped gently holding down Israels's rage at every shell that gets sent their way, I can certainly see Israel's own hard-lined leaders trying to slap down Palestinians and their outside support once and for all. Such a lopsided military offense would certainly draw support against Israel from other parts of the Arab world, and the rest is a snowball on a steep hill. But this is conjecture to be sure.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  That's not a conjecture that's not even fantasy, that's a complete ignorance of the political situation. Israel isn't being lead by hard-liners (when comparing them to US hard liners / right wing), the "Likud" is called a right wing party, mostly because back when it was established the Israeli left still had a hammer and a sickle in their logo. Israel has no reason to bomb the Palestinians out of existence and while I doesn't want to give up territory for many reasons with security being a prime one, it also doesn't show intent no has a reason to go out for an all out war. Offensive operations are not viewed well by the Israeli public, not to mention that even if they did went all out on the Palestinians no one in the Arab world would really care. The Palestinian issue isn't and wasn't anything more than a front in the wider conflict between the Arab states and Israel, that conflict is long gone and faded. If the Arabs cared about Palestinians they would not block the UN from treating them as refugees, they would not force them to live in camps for 70 years passing their situation to their children and instead of denying them every right they could easily have resettled them by now.